Stablecoin Volumes Poised to Surpass ACH as Growth and Regulation Fuel Adoption

Galaxy Digital, a leading digital asset company, has predicted that stablecoins will surpass the U.S. Automated Clearing House (ACH) system in transaction volume by 2026. According to Galaxy's annual predictions report, the forecast highlights the growing role of stablecoins in facilitating dollar transfers on blockchain networks. The report notes that stablecoins already outpace major credit card networks in transaction volume and now process roughly half of ACH's activity. This shift is attributed to increased regulatory clarity, rising adoption, and the growing utility of stablecoins in cross-border and institutional use cases as research shows.

Galaxy Research, the research arm of Galaxy Digital, supports its forecast with current transaction data and regulatory developments. Thad Pinakiewicz, vice president of research, stated that stablecoin supply has grown at a 30%–40% compound annual growth rate, with transaction volumes rising in tandem according to Galaxy's analysis. The report also points to the expected implementation of definitions under the GENIUS Act in early 2026 as a key factor driving further adoption. These regulatory developments are expected to provide a clearer legal framework for stablecoins, encouraging broader institutional and consumer use.

The prediction aligns with broader trends in the stablecoin market, which has seen exponential growth over the past year. According to DefiLlama, the stablecoin market cap currently stands at about $309 billion, with Tether's USDT and Circle's USDC dominating the sector as data shows. However, the landscape is expanding as more financial institutions and fintech firms enter the space. For example, Western Union announced plans to launch its own dollar-pegged stablecoin, while Sony Bank is preparing a stablecoin for use across its digital ecosystem. These moves underscore the increasing legitimacy and utility of stablecoins in mainstream finance according to market analysis.

Drivers of Stablecoin Growth

The rise of stablecoins is being fueled by several factors, including their use as on/off-ramps for cryptocurrency trading and as a stable store of value amid the volatility of other digital assets as market trends indicate. Additionally, stablecoins are increasingly being integrated into real-world financial systems.

Visa, for instance, has expanded its stablecoin settlement program to U.S. banks using USDC on the Solana blockchain. This integration allows for faster, round-the-clock transactions and marks a shift toward blockchain-based settlement in traditional finance as reported by industry sources.

Regulatory developments also play a crucial role. The GENIUS Act, which is expected to take effect in early 2026, provides a framework for stablecoin issuance under FDIC supervision, giving banks a clear path to offer their own dollar-backed tokens as outlined in regulatory filings. The FDIC's proposal under this act requires that banks maintain high-quality liquid reserves fully backing the stablecoins and adhere to strict governance standards. This regulatory clarity is expected to accelerate adoption and reduce uncertainty for market participants as analysts note.

Institutional and Market Outlook

The growing institutional interest in stablecoins is another key driver of their expansion. According to Coinbase Institutional, stablecoins are evolving from a niche asset to an essential component of global financial infrastructure as the firm reports. The firm forecasts that the stablecoin market could grow to about $1.2 trillion by 2028, driven by increased use in payments, settlement, payroll, and cross-border remittances. This growth is supported by broader macroeconomic trends, including regulatory maturation and the integration of digital assets into traditional financial systems as market research indicates.

JPMorgan also highlighted the potential for stablecoins in its December report, forecasting a market cap of $500–600 billion by 2028 as the bank's analysis shows. The analysts attributed this growth to institutional adoption, the rise of yield-bearing tokens, and increased cross-border payments. Notably, USDT and USDC have been the primary contributors to the sector's expansion, with supply increases of $48 billion and $34 billion, respectively, in 2025 as data shows. These trends suggest that stablecoins are becoming more than just a tool for crypto traders and are increasingly serving as functional currency in global financial operations.

Implications for the Financial System

The potential for stablecoins to surpass ACH in transaction volume raises significant implications for the U.S. financial system. Currently, ACH handles a vast majority of domestic transactions, including payroll and bill payments. If stablecoins can process more volume, they could begin to displace traditional payment rails, offering faster, cheaper, and more accessible alternatives. This shift could reshape how money moves across the economy, particularly in cross-border remittances and retail transactions.

Moreover, the expansion of stablecoins could challenge existing financial institutions to adapt or face obsolescence. While traditional banks have begun to explore their own stablecoin offerings, the speed and scalability of blockchain-based solutions could give fintech firms and tech companies a competitive edge. For example, RedotPay recently raised $107 million in a Series B funding round to scale its stablecoin payment services and expand into new markets as financial reports indicate. This level of investment signals confidence in the long-term potential of stablecoins as a transformative force in global finance.

What This Means for Investors

For investors, the growing dominance of stablecoins presents both opportunities and risks. On the one hand, the sector has demonstrated consistent growth and is now valued at over $300 billion, with clear use cases in payments, settlements, and yield generation as market analysis shows. On the other, the market remains subject to regulatory scrutiny and macroeconomic shifts, such as interest rate cuts, which could impact the profitability of stablecoin issuers. Circle, for instance, saw its stock price fall significantly after its initial public offering, despite USDC experiencing continued supply growth as financial reports indicate. This highlights the importance of monitoring regulatory developments and macroeconomic conditions for investors considering exposure to the stablecoin sector.

As stablecoins continue to evolve from a niche asset to a core part of global financial infrastructure, the coming years will be critical in determining their long-term role. With regulatory clarity, technological innovation, and institutional adoption driving growth, the potential for stablecoins to transform the financial landscape is increasingly within reach.