The Stablecoin Shift: How Walmart and Amazon Are Redefining Payments—and Where to Find Dividends in the Transition

The retail giants Walmart and Amazon are poised to disrupt the $15 trillion global payments market with their foray into stablecoins—digital currencies tied 1:1 to traditional currencies like the U.S. dollar. By bypassing high fees charged by Visa and Mastercard (2-3% per transaction), these companies aim to slash costs, accelerate settlements, and cement their dominance in e-commerce. For investors, this shift presents a compelling opportunity to capitalize on the transition through dividend stocks positioned at the intersection of legacy payment systems and blockchain innovation.

The Strategic Imperative for Retail Stablecoins
Walmart and Amazon's push into stablecoins isn't just about saving on transaction fees. It's a strategic move to:
1. Reduce dependency on financial intermediaries: By issuing their own USD-backed stablecoins, they can directly settle cross-border B2B payments and manage treasury operations more efficiently.
2. Compete in emerging markets: Regions with unstable currencies (e.g., Argentina, Turkey) could see Walmart or Amazon stablecoins as a reliable alternative to local fiat.
3. Monetize consumer data: Stablecoin ecosystems could integrate loyalty programs, microloans, or personalized financial services—turning payment rails into profit centers.
Regulatory clarity is accelerating this shift. The U.S. Senate's GENIUS Act, which passed in June 2025, mandates stablecoin issuers hold fully reserved assets and comply with AML laws. This creates a framework for Walmart and Amazon to launch without legal roadblocks, though adoption will depend on incentives like discounted fees for stablecoin users.
Ask Aime: Is Walmart's stablecoin a game-changer in e-commerce?
Dividend Stocks to Watch
While Walmart and Amazon themselves may see margin improvements and dividend growth (Walmart's payout ratio is 35%, with a 16% upside to its stock price projected by 2025), the most immediate beneficiaries are likely to be payment infrastructure providers and blockchain enablers. Here's where to look:
1. Visa (V): A Legacy Leader Adapting to the New Era
- Dividend Yield: 1.2% (with $1.2 billion in dividends paid Q2 2025).
- Why Invest: Visa's dominance—70 million merchants and 60 billion annual transactions—gives it a fortress balance sheet ($15.2B cash) and flexibility to innovate.
- Stablecoin Play: Visa has piloted stablecoin issuance with BBVA on Ethereum and integrated real-time settlement systems. Its Value-Added Services (VAS) segment, growing at 22%, includes fraud detection and B2B platforms like Visa Direct.
- V Closing Price
2. Mastercard (MA): Partnering for Blockchain Dominance
- Dividend Yield: 0.5%, but with a conservative payout ratio (19%) and $11.04B returned to shareholders in 2024.
- Why Invest: Mastercard's partnerships with Circle (USDC), Paxos, and crypto platforms like MoonPay position it as a bridge between traditional finance and stablecoins.
- Growth Catalyst: Its Multi-Token Network (MTN) with JPMorgan and Standard Chartered enables real-time cross-border settlements, a key use case for Walmart/Amazon stablecoins.
3. Circle (CRYPTO): The USDC Backbone
- Dividend Yield: N/A (a growth stock, not dividend-focused).
- Why Monitor: Circle's USDC is already used by Shopify and could become Walmart/Amazon's preferred stablecoin partner. Its public listing in 2025 and $1.5B in reserves make it a critical infrastructure play.
- Risk: Regulatory scrutiny (e.g., SEC lawsuits) could pressure its valuation, but long-term adoption trends favor its survival.
4. FIS (FIS): Payment Infrastructure for the Digital Age
- Dividend Yield: 1.9%, with a focus on growing payouts in line with Adjusted EPS (up 11% Y/Y in Q1 2025).
- Why Invest: FIS's acquisition of Global Payments' Issuer Solutions business expands its role in banking and real-time payment systems. While not explicitly blockchain-focused, its scale (1,200+ clients) positions it to integrate stablecoin settlement layers.
Risks and Considerations
- Regulatory Uncertainty: While the GENIUS Act is a step forward, global standards vary. The EU's MiCA framework and U.S. oversight could create compliance costs.
- Consumer Adoption: Stablecoins must offer clear advantages (e.g., 0% fees for Walmart purchases) to lure users from traditional cards.
- Legacy Players' Resilience: Visa and Mastercard's entrenched networks and AI-driven fraud protection (e.g., Visa's 15% reduction in fraud losses) give them staying power.
Investment Strategy
For income-focused investors, Visa and Mastercard are the safest bets. Their dividends are backed by recurring revenue streams, and their adaptation to stablecoins mitigates disruption risks. For those willing to take on more volatility, Circle could offer outsized returns if Walmart or Amazon adopt USDC.
Historical backtests reveal that when Visa and Mastercard exceeded earnings estimates by at least 5%, holding their shares for 20 days delivered an average return of 4.3% and 5.1% respectively, with hit rates exceeding 65%. This consistency underscores their resilience during positive surprises, reinforcing their stability as dividend plays.
Avoid overpaying for growth:
- Visa's P/E of 27 is below its five-year average (32), suggesting undervaluation.
- Mastercard's 0.5% yield is low, but its 29 P/E is justified by its 15%+ EPS growth trajectory.
Conclusion
Walmart and Amazon's stablecoin initiatives mark a tectonic shift in how retailers manage payments. While the full impact may take years, the infrastructure providers enabling this transition—like Visa, Mastercard, and Circle—are already navigating the changes. Investors seeking dividends should prioritize companies with diversified revenue streams and proactive blockchain strategies, while keeping an eye on regulatory developments. In this era of payment innovation, stability lies in backing the adaptable.
Ruth Simon
June 19, 2025
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