Stablecoin Settlements to Hit $3T to $5T Annually by 2026 as On-Chain Volumes Rise

Stablecoin rails are poised to significantly disrupt traditional cross-border payment systems by 2026, as on-chain settlements continue to rise and infrastructure developments reduce transaction costs and increase accessibility [1]. In July alone, stablecoins moved approximately $3.3 trillion on-chain, with around 39.7 million monthly active addresses. The total value of stablecoins remains near $259 billion, according to RWA.xyz’s live dashboard [1].

A growing number of mainstream financial players are integrating stablecoins into their ecosystems. Stripe has reintroduced crypto payments, starting with USDC on Solana, Ethereum, and Polygon, with further features expected in 2025 [1]. Coinbase and PayPal have also taken steps to make stablecoins more practical for everyday use, including fee waivers for PYUSD conversions, enabling merchants to settle transactions directly in stablecoins [1].

Transaction costs are also falling, particularly on Ethereum layer-2 (L2) solutions, where post-Dencun and Pectra blob-capacity upgrades have brought average rollup fees down to the low-cent range [1]. According to Galaxy’s analysis, this trend is expected to continue, maintaining low fees for end users as capacity expands [1].

A key driver of adoption is the emergence of cash-like yields on tokenized U.S. Treasury bills. RWA.xyz’s data shows about $7 billion of on-chain T-bill value, and BlackRock’s BUIDL fund, managed by Securitize, surpassed $3 billion in assets under management in June [1]. These developments are attracting treasury and fintech flows, offering a compelling alternative to traditional assets.

A forward-looking model based on observable metrics suggests stablecoin settlement could reach $3 trillion to $5 trillion annually by 2026. This projection considers monthly address growth of 2% to 3%, an average payment value between $400 and $1,200, and increasing off-ramp adoption via processors and exchanges [1]. Even after factoring in internal exchange churn and a 10% to 20% cash-out rate, the potential for $3 trillion in annualized end-user settlement in a base case remains strong [1].

The World Bank reports a global average remittance cost of 6.26% as of March 27, highlighting a competitive edge for stablecoins in corridors where speed, cost, and transparency are critical. Regulatory support is also emerging: the U.S. GENIUS Act, now law, mandates fiat-backed reserves and monthly disclosures for stablecoins, reinforcing their credibility and demand for short-dated Treasuries that underpin many tokens [1].

While stablecoins are not expected to fully displace SWIFT or card networks, they are likely to capture specific corridors where traditional systems face limitations. With on-chain volumes already substantial, low fees, and regulatory clarity, stablecoins are well-positioned to absorb transactions in cross-border remittances, B2B settlements, and treasury flows [1].

The integration of stablecoins into mainstream financial infrastructure, driven by major processors like PayPal and Stripe, is extending adoption beyond crypto-native channels. PayPal, for example, has tens of millions of merchant relationships, and combined with Stripe’s return to crypto payments, the distribution channels for stablecoins are rapidly expanding [1].

This evolution reflects a broader shift in financial infrastructure, where on-chain rails compete with legacy networks on cost, speed, and transparency. As adoption grows and regulatory frameworks solidify, stablecoins are set to redefine the landscape of global payments over the next few years [1].

Source:

[1] Stablecoin to settle $5 trillion and challenge SWIFT in 2026 amid $3.3T July volume

https://cryptoslate.com/stablecoin-projection-to-settle-5-trillion-and-challenge-swift-in-2026/