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St. Joe Company: Unlocking Florida’s Panhandle Goldmine

Harrison BrooksThursday, May 15, 2025 12:15 am ET

5min read

The St. Joe Company (NYSE:JOE) is standing at the intersection of one of America’s most explosive growth markets—Florida’s Panhandle—and a strategic pivot toward sustainable, infrastructure-backed development. With its vast land holdings, partnerships with leading firms, and a regulatory environment primed to accelerate growth, St. Joe presents a rare opportunity to capitalize on undervalued assets and imminent catalysts. Here’s why investors should act now.

Geographic Expansion: The Panhandle’s Untapped Potential

Florida’s Panhandle is undergoing a quiet revolution. The St. Joe Company’s 2025 Annual Meeting disclosures revealed a $500 million, five-year infrastructure investment plan targeting transportation, utilities, and sustainable development. This includes a critical state-backed transportation corridor linking the Panhandle to coastal economic hubs, set to break ground in early 2026. The project’s inclusion of affordable housing near transit stations reflects St. Joe’s focus on equitable, long-term growth.

Partnerships are key to unlocking this potential. The company’s collaboration with GreenPath Developments, a sustainable infrastructure firm, underscores its commitment to mixed-use projects blending residential, commercial, and recreational spaces. A new Panhandle Growth Initiative fund, targeting both private and public capital, will further fuel development. With zoning policies mandating 20% open space or ecological conservation in new projects, St. Joe’s lands—already zoned for high-value uses—are poised to appreciate as demand for sustainable living spaces surges.

Regulatory Tailwinds: Infrastructure and Zoning as Growth Multipliers

Florida’s regulatory landscape is now a tailwind, not a headwind. The state’s public-private partnership (PPP) model for the transportation corridor ensures shared risk and accelerated timelines. Meanwhile, federal grants for flood-control systems in flood-prone areas of the Panhandle—highlighted in the Annual Meeting—will reduce project risks and enhance land value.

Crucially, the 20% open space zoning requirement creates artificial scarcity, driving up the value of developable land. This is a double win: it attracts eco-conscious buyers and developers while ensuring St. Joe’s holdings remain in high demand.

Florida’s population has grown at nearly twice the national rate over the past five years, with the Panhandle emerging as a prime destination for retirees and families fleeing urban congestion. With housing starts lagging behind demand, St. Joe’s land assets are positioned to capitalize on this imbalance.

Latent Land Value: A Hidden Asset Play

St. Joe’s true value lies in its 260,000-acre land portfolio, much of it in the Panhandle’s high-growth zones. Current valuation metrics, while elevated relative to peers, fail to account for the unrealized potential of this land.

Book Value vs. Market Value: St. Joe’s Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 3.6x (as of March 2025) understates the true worth of its land. Unlike peers like D.R. Horton (DHI), which trades at a P/B of 1.55x, St. Joe’s assets are held at historical cost, not market value. As developments progress, this gap will narrow.
ESG-Driven Appreciation: Projects like the Longleaf Art Park and solar-powered infrastructure align with ESG trends, making St. Joe’s developments more attractive to socially conscious investors and tenants.

The company’s asset management subsidiary, Watersound Real Estate, has already delivered wins, such as the Residence Inn by Marriott in Panama City Beach. With plans to monetize more land through sales and joint ventures, St. Joe’s cash flow and valuation are set to rise.

Valuation: A Discounted Entry Point

While St. Joe’s P/E ratio of 33.9x appears high versus peers like D.R. Horton (9.2x), its EV/EBITDA of 22.4x compares favorably to Lennar’s 48.8x, signaling undervaluation in operational terms. A DCF analysis may suggest overvaluation, but it overlooks the option value of its land. As zoning approvals and infrastructure projects materialize, earnings will catch up to the stock price.

Catalysts for Near-Term Gains

Q2 2025–2026: Break ground on the transportation corridor, unlocking adjacent land for high-value development.
2025–2026: Secure zoning approvals for Watersound Origins, a 1,000-acre community with cultural amenities.
2026–2027: Land sales from completed infrastructure projects, driving immediate cash flow.

Conclusion: Act Before the Market Catches On

The St. Joe Company is not just a real estate play—it’s a strategic bet on Florida’s future. With its land assets undervalued, partnerships driving scalability, and regulatory tailwinds accelerating development, the stock offers a rare combination of growth and resilience.

Investors should act now to secure exposure to this undervalued growth story. The Panhandle’s potential—and St. Joe’s position as its gatekeeper—is too big to ignore.

John Gapper

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