SSR Mining's Hod Maden: A Scalable Growth Engine or a Capital-Intensive Detour?

For a growth-focused investor, Hod Maden represents a classic de-risked opportunity. The project's financial profile, as detailed in its Feasibility Study, is compelling: an after-tax IRR of 36% and a two-year payback period from production start. This isn't just a speculative venture; it's a high-return development asset with a clear path to generating cash. The study projects a $1.05 billion NPV5% at base-case metal prices, a figure that underscores its robust economics even before operational execution begins.

Scale is built into the model. Hod Maden is designed to produce an average annual output of 156,000 ounces of gold and significant copper over a 13-year life, with a mill capacity of 800,000 tonnes per annum. More importantly, SSR Mining expects the asset to generate $66 million in free cash flow per year once in production. That translates to a projected annual output of 80,000 gold-equivalent ounces-a substantial, recurring cash flow stream that can fund further growth or return capital to shareholders.

Location adds another layer of strategic value. Situated in northeastern Türkiye, Hod Maden is approximately 330 km from SSR Mining's Çöpler Mine and 260 km from the Copper Hill prospect. This proximity to existing operations suggests potential for operational synergies, shared infrastructure, and a lower learning curve for management. It turns a standalone project into a potential cluster of high-margin assets.

The bottom line is that Hod Maden fits a clear growth thesis. It offers a scalable, capital-efficient platform for cash generation in a bullish metals market, with a financial case that is both de-risked and highly attractive.

Scalability and Market Penetration: Capturing the Copper-Gold Tailwind

Hod Maden's design is a direct play on the dual demand tailwinds for both precious and industrial metals. Its core scalability is defined by a robust mill capacity of 800,000 tonnes per annum and a projected average annual production of 156,000 ounces of gold and 19.6 million pounds of copper over a 13-year life. This isn't a marginal producer; it's engineered to be a significant, recurring contributor to SSR Mining's portfolio. The asset's high-margin profile, with average recoveries of 85% for gold and 93% for copper, ensures that this production volume translates directly into strong cash generation once operational.

This production mix is strategically positioned. Gold provides a hedge against macro uncertainty and a store of value, while copper is a critical enabler for the energy transition and electrification. Hod Maden's scale allows SSR to capture value from both trends simultaneously. The project's expected annual free cash flow of $66 million is a function of this dual-metal output, creating a durable cash engine that can fund further exploration or shareholder returns.

The growth story doesn't end with the initial plan. A key lever for enhancing scalability is the ongoing exploration program. SSR Mining has planned an initial exploration program in 2025 with a focus on the potential extension to the existing deposit. The project's land package covers approximately 3,500 hectares, and evidence notes significant exploration potential across property. Successfully extending the resource base could materially increase the project's total economic value, potentially lengthening the mine life or boosting recoverable ounces. This exploration focus is a critical step in de-risking the initial years and maximizing the asset's long-term contribution.

The bottom line is that Hod Maden offers a scalable platform. Its defined production capacity provides a clear path to capturing structural demand, while the planned exploration aims to grow that potential. For a growth investor, this combination of near-term cash flow and long-term resource upside makes it a compelling engine within SSR Mining's portfolio.

Execution and Financial Impact: Progress vs. Capital Commitment

The tangible progress at Hod Maden is clear, but it comes with a significant and staged capital commitment. In the third quarter of 2025, SSR Mining invested $17.1 million in the project, focusing on engineering and early site development. This brings the company's cumulative spend to $44.4 million through the end of Q3 2025, following $42.1 million spent in 2024. The company has set its full-year 2025 capital guidance at $60 to $100 million on a 100% basis, indicating a major ramp-up in spending as the project advances toward a formal investment decision.

This is a deliberate, phased commitment. The capital is being deployed to advance critical path items like road and tunnel construction, moving the asset closer to a construction decision. It is separate from the company's core production guidance. SSR Mining's 2025 output forecast of 410,000 to 480,000 gold equivalent ounces includes the new CC&V acquisition and is driven by its existing operating mines. The Hod Maden spend is a forward-looking investment to build a future cash flow engine, not an immediate contributor to near-term production.

The scale of this commitment relative to the company's overall financials is noteworthy. While the exact size of SSR's balance sheet isn't detailed here, a $60-$100 million annual spend on a single development project represents a substantial portion of its capital allocation. This is a classic growth trade-off: committing significant cash today for the promise of $66 million in annual free cash flow once the asset is in production. For a growth investor, the key question is whether this capital is being deployed efficiently to de-risk the path to that high-return outcome, or if it stretches the company's financial flexibility too thin. The staged nature of the spend, however, provides a clear visibility into the company's priorities and the timeline for Hod Maden to transition from a development project to a cash-generating asset.

Catalysts, Risks, and What to Watch

The path to Hod Maden's growth thesis hinges on a few clear milestones. The primary near-term catalyst is a formal investment decision (FID) and an updated life-of-mine plan. SSR Mining is advancing steadily toward this, with engineering work and early-stage site development ongoing. The company has set its full-year 2025 capital guidance at $60 to $100 million, a major ramp-up from prior years, to fund critical path items like road and tunnel construction. This spending is designed to bring the project to a point where a final decision can be made, with the target for first production set for 2028.

The key risk to this timeline is capital overruns or delays. Committing up to $100 million in a single year is a significant financial bet. Any cost blowouts or construction setbacks beyond the 2028 target would directly pressure SSR Mining's cash flow and stretch its growth timeline. The company's ability to secure project financing ahead of FID is another critical variable that could impact the final capital structure and returns.

The most important watchpoint for validating the project's long-term scalability is the outcome of the 2025 exploration program. SSR Mining is planning an initial program focused on potential extension to the existing deposit across its 3,500-hectare land package. Successfully finding new, economic mineralization could materially increase the total resource base and extend the mine life. This would directly enhance the project's total economic value and the durability of its projected $66 million in annual free cash flow. Conversely, a lack of significant extensions would mean the asset's value is fully dependent on the initial feasibility study's assumptions.

For a growth investor, the setup is one of patient capital deployment. The company is spending to de-risk the path to a high-return project, but the payoff is years away. The next twelve months will be decisive, as the exploration results and the progress toward a formal investment decision will either confirm Hod Maden's potential as a scalable engine or highlight the execution risks inherent in a major development.