SPY Set for a Showdown at $700: Call Skew, Whale Puts, and a RSI Divergence Signal Big Moves This Week

• SPY surges 1.08% to $669.43, bouncing off the 200-day moving average at $658.60
• Options market leans heavily bearish: put open interest is nearly double call open interest (1.98 ratio)
• Massive block trades in the $700 and $670 put options hint at positioning ahead of the March 20 expiry

Here’s the core takeaway: the options market is painting a clear picture of caution and positioning around the $700 level, while SPY’s price action hints at a potential reversal. The coming days could bring a decisive move either way — and we’re in a prime position to spot it.

Bull vs Bear Battle: OTM Call Skew and Whale Put Blocks Tell the Story

Looking at the options chain for SPY, the picture is clear. On Friday, March 20, the most open interest in OTM calls is at $700 (OI: 70,516), $690 (54,831), and $695 (48,012). That’s a tight cluster of bullish bets near a level SPY hasn’t closed above in weeks.

But the bearish side is even louder. Put options at $660 (188,827), $645 (164,374), and the absurdly deep $520 (158,365) dominate the open interest landscape. The ratio of 1.98 between puts and calls shows the market isn’t just cautious — it’s leaning hard on downside protection.

Now look at the block trades: a 2,700-contract trade at SPY20260320P700 and a 2,000-contract trade at SPY20260320P705. These are large enough to signal whale activity. It’s not just retail investors hedging — smart money is moving. If SPY breaks below key support levels before Friday, these puts could trigger a cascade of selling.

No Major News, But That Doesn't Mean Nothing

While the last four days have seen no major SPY-specific headlines, the lack of news doesn’t mean the market is indifferent. In fact, it’s the opposite. With no fundamental catalysts, the price move is being driven purely by positioning and technical flow. That means the options market — and the $700 call skew — is the dominant narrative right now.

And the RSI at 34.24 is telling us something: SPY is oversold but not quite at the levels that would trigger a reflexive bounce. The next couple of days will be critical in determining if this is a temporary pullback or the start of a larger correction.

Trade Ideas: Calls for the Bounce, Puts for the Drop

If you’re bullish, look at the SPY20260320C700 call. It’s the most open and has a high chance of being in play if SPY closes near or above $690 by Friday. For a longer-dated play, the SPY20260327C705 is a tighter range, with decent leverage if SPY makes a late-week push.

On the bear side, SPY20260320P700 is a whale magnet — and the block trades confirm it. If the 200-day MA at $658.60 breaks, SPY20260320P670 and SPY20260320P645 are likely to see a spike in volume and price.

For the stock play, consider the following:

• Bullish entry: Look to buy SPY near $670 if it holds above the lower Bollinger Band at $665.99 and the 200-day MA. Target: $690–$700
• Bearish entry: Short SPY near $675 if it fails to close above the 30-day MA at $683.98 on two consecutive days. Stop above $685 to limit risk

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Expect Before Friday

The coming days are shaping up to be a key inflection point. The RSI is at a level where a reversal is more likely than a continued drop — but only if the price can retest and hold above $670. If SPY does that, we could see a short-term rally to the 30-day MA at $686.14.

But if the block trades at the $700 put level signal a deep bearish bet, and SPY breaks below the $667.58 intraday low, that could trigger a much deeper correction. Either way, the market is watching the $700 level like a hawk — and that means opportunity for those who spot the shift first.