SPY Options Signal Bullish Breakout Potential: Key Strikes and Whale Moves to Watch

• SPY trades at $688.80, up 0.18% with volume surging past 52.8M shares
• Put/Call open interest ratio sits at 2.02, but next Friday’s $700 call OI jumps to 100,743 contracts
• Paul Tudor Jones trims 0.72% stake while block traders snap up 6,000 SPY20250930C657 calls

Here’s the thing: SPY’s options market is sending mixed signals with a bullish technical setup. While puts dominate open interest, key call strikes are heating up—especially around $690–$700. If you’re watching this ETF, today’s data suggests a high-probability breakout scenario if support holds. Let’s break down why.

Bullish Imbalance in Call Options, But Puts Tell a Different Story

Next Friday’s options chain shows a striking imbalance: the $700 call (OI: 100,743) and $690 call (OI: 54,213) are the most watched strikes. This suggests positioning for a potential 1.6% move above current levels. But don’t ignore the puts—$505 puts (OI: 216,187) hint at extreme downside protection bets, which could cap volatility if the Fed’s policy uncertainty lingers.

Block trading adds intrigue. The 6,000-contract SPY20250930C657 buy block (expiring Sept 30) shows big money is hedging long-term bullish bets. Meanwhile, the 5,000-contract SPY20251121C680 call purchase (expiring Nov 21) aligns with SPY’s 30-day support zone at $683.37–$684.07. These moves suggest smart money is preparing for a late-year rally.

Paul Tudor Jones’ Move Adds Nuance to Market Sentiment

The news of Tudor Jones trimming his SPY stake by 0.72% feels bearish on the surface. But options data tells a different story. With SPY’s RSI at 72 (overbought) and MACD (3.85) above its signal line, the ETF is primed for a pullback—yet the block trades and call OI suggest buyers will step in near key levels. Retail investors might overreact to Tudor’s move, but institutional positioning implies they’re buying dips in a market that’s already priced in much of the bad news.

Actionable Trade Ideas for SPY Today

For options traders: SPY20251219C700 (next Friday’s $700 call) looks most attractive. With 100,743 contracts in open interest and block buying activity, this strike could act as a liquidity magnet. Target a 2–3% move if SPY closes above $695 by expiration. For a safer play, consider a call spread using SPY20251219C690 (OI: 54,213) as the floor.

For stock traders: Look to enter near $683.37–$684.07 (30-day support) with a stop-loss below today’s intraday low of $682.17. If SPY holds here, target $696.19 (upper Bollinger Band) as a first profit zone. Avoid chasing above $690 unless volume confirms a breakout.

Volatility on the Horizon: What to Watch Next

SPY’s technicals are lining up for a directional move. The 200-day MA at $619.18 is a distant floor, but near-term focus should be on the $683–$684 support and $695 resistance. With Oracle’s earnings and Fed policy updates looming, expect options volatility to spike. If the $700 call strike becomes a liquidity wall, we could see a self-fulfilling breakout by next Friday. Stay nimble—this ETF is set for a decisive move one way or the other.