SPY Options Signal Bullish Breakout Potential: Key Strikes and Whale Moves to Watch for 2026

• SPY trades at $689.14, up 0.17% with volume surging to 8.99M—nearly double its 30-day average.
• Options data shows heavy call open interest at $690 and $700 strikes, while puts pile up at $670 and $680.
• A 1.88 put/call OI ratio hints at bearish caution, but technicals scream long-term bullish momentum.

Here’s the takeaway: SPY is perched at a crossroads. The technicals and options data tell two stories—one of cautious defense, the other of aggressive optimism. But the weight of the numbers leans toward a bullish breakout, especially with key support levels holding firm.

The Battle of Bulls and Bears in the Options Market

Let’s start with the options chain. This Friday’s expiring calls see the most open interest at $690 (39,543 contracts) and $700 (18,295), while puts cluster at $670 (25,509) and $680 (15,542). The next Friday’s data amplifies this pattern: calls at $690 (34,974) and $698 (25,548) dominate, while puts at $667 (15,416) and $680 (9,690) linger.

This isn’t just noise. The call-heavy OI above the current price suggests traders are pricing in a potential push toward $700. But the puts at $670 and $680 act as a safety net for bears—if SPY stumbles below 685, those strikes could become liquidity magnets. The 1.88 put/call ratio (by OI) is a red flag for bears, but it’s also a contrarian signal: when fear peaks, bulls often strike.

Don’t ignore the block trades either. A $4.5M buy of 6,000 SPY20250930C657 calls and a $3.5M grab of 5,000 SPY20251121C680 calls scream institutional confidence. Meanwhile, the SPY20260116P645 put sell block (750 contracts) hints at a whale betting against a deep selloff. These moves aren’t random—they’re chess pieces in a larger game.

No Major News, But Technicals Tell the Story

The lack of recent headlines means SPY’s direction hinges on technicals and macro forces. The 54.5 RSI isn’t overbought, and the 200-day MA at $623.70 feels like a distant memory. Bollinger Bands show the upper band at $690.80—just 70 cents shy of the $690 call strike with the most OI. That’s no coincidence.

Here’s what’s interesting: SPY’s 30-day support (683.31–684.04) aligns neatly with the 200-day support (681.46–685.32). If the ETF holds above 683, the path to $700 looks clear. But a breakdown below 681.46 could trigger a test of the lower Bollinger band at $673.19—a level that would make those $670 puts suddenly relevant.

Actionable Trade Ideas for 2026

For options traders, the most compelling plays are the SPY20260102C690 and SPY20260102C698 calls. Why? The $690 strike is just 0.86% above the current price but has the second-highest OI for next Friday’s expiring contracts. If SPY breaks above $690.80 (the upper Bollinger band), these calls could see explosive gains. The $698 strike offers higher reward for a bigger move, but it’s a longer shot—still, the 25,548 OI suggests smart money is pricing in a rally.

Stock traders should consider entries near $683–684 if support holds. A close above $690.22 (intraday high) would validate the bullish case, with $700 as the first major target. For risk-managed plays, a bullish call spread using SPY20260102C690 and SPY20260102C700 could cap risk while still capturing a breakout.

Bearish players aren’t out of options. The SPY20260102P680 puts (9,690 OI) offer downside protection if the ETF dips toward 681.46. But given the long-term bullish trend and the block trade activity, this feels more like insurance than a directional bet.

Volatility on the Horizon

SPY’s setup is a classic tug-of-war between cautious bears and aggressive bulls. The technicals are firmly in bullish territory, but the options market isn’t fully priced for a rally. This creates an asymmetric opportunity: a small move above $690 could unlock significant gains for call holders, while a breakdown below 681.46 would validate the puts.

Keep an eye on the 200-day MA as a psychological floor. If SPY closes above $685 by next Friday, the 1.88 put/call ratio might invert quickly. For now, the data says this: bulls have momentum, bears have liquidity, and the stage is set for a decisive move in early 2026.