SPY Options Signal Bullish Bias as Call Open Interest Surpasses Puts: Here’s How to Position for the Final Stretch of 2025

• SPY trades at $684.63, up 0.59% from its open, with volume surging to 27.5M shares.
• Put/Call Open Interest ratio stands at 1.76, but call OI dominance at key strikes like $685–$700 hints at a bullish structural shift.
• Block trades show $4.5M bought in SPY20251121C680 and $1.1M sold in SPY20260116P645, signaling mixed near-term positioning.

The market is whispering: SPY could break above $685 today, but options data shows a deeper story of institutional bullishness.The Options Imbalance: Why $685–$700 Calls Are a Bullish Red Flag

Let’s start with the numbers. For Friday’s expirations, calls at $685–$700 dominate Open Interest, while puts cluster below $670. The next Friday’s data amplifies this: 46,461 OI at SPY20260102C687 (a strike just above current price) dwarfs put activity. This isn’t random—call OI is 55% higher than puts in the next cycle.

What does this mean? Traders are pricing in a high probability of SPY staying above $685 through early January. The block trade of 6,000 SPY20251121C680 calls (buy to open) adds weight: someone’s betting SPY will hold its 30-day support at $683.31–$684.04 and rally from there.

But don’t ignore the risks. The RSI at 50.4 and MACD crossing below signal line suggest short-term exhaustion. If SPY dips below $682.68 (today’s low), the 200-day MA at $622.52 becomes a psychological abyss.

No News, But Options Are Talking

There’s no major news in the 3–4 day window, which usually means the market is driven by technicals and positioning. That’s where options data shines. The $687 call OI spike suggests a quiet consensus: SPY’s long-term bull trend (200D MA at $622.52) is intact, and traders are hedging against a late-year rally.

But here’s the twist: block trades show a split. While calls are being bought aggressively, the $1.1M sold put at SPY20260116P645 (a deep OTM strike) indicates some hedging against a crash. It’s a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” setup—positioning for a rally but locking in downside protection.

Actionable Trades: Calls for the Bold, Stock for the Patient

For options traders: SPY20251226C685 (this Friday’s $685 call) is a short-term play if SPY breaks above $685.31 (200D support). For longer exposure, SPY20260102C687 offers leverage if SPY holds above $683.31.

For stock buyers: Enter near $684.63 if SPY closes above today’s low of $682.68. First target: $685.08 (intraday high). Second: $693.71 (Bollinger Upper Band). Stop-loss below $681.46 (200D support).

Volatility on the Horizon: Positioning for SPY’s Year-End Move

The data tells two stories: a short-term bearish Kline pattern and a long-term bullish MA setup. The options market is hedging both. If you’re bullish, the $687 call is your ticket. If you’re cautious, the $670 put (next Friday’s top put) offers downside insurance.

But here’s the real takeaway: SPY is at a crossroads. The next 48 hours will tell us if today’s 0.59% gain is a breakout or a false flag. Either way, the options market has already priced in a directional move—now it’s up to the stock to decide which way to go.