SPRY Surges 9.37% on Intraday Rally: What's Fueling the Momentum?

Summary
• SPRY rockets 9.37% to $10.74, piercing intraday high of $10.99
• Turnover surges to 1.38M shares, 2.31% of float
• MACD crosses above signal line, RSI near 52.7
• Bollinger Bands show price near upper band at $11.72

ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) has ignited a sharp intraday rally, defying its long-term bearish trend. With turnover spiking and technical indicators flashing mixed signals, traders are scrambling to decipher whether this surge marks a reversal or a fleeting bounce. The stock’s 9.37% jump—its largest single-day move since late 2024—has thrust it into the spotlight, but the absence of company or sector news leaves the catalyst shrouded in mystery.

Technical Breakout Triggers Volatility Spike
The explosive move stems from a technical breakout as SPRY pierced above its 200-day moving average ($12.81) and approached the Bollinger Bands upper boundary ($11.72). The 30-day support/resistance range (9.51–9.60) was decisively breached, triggering algorithmic buying and short-covering. While the 52-week low ($6.66) remains a distant floor, the 52-week high ($18.90) is still out of reach. The MACD histogram’s positive divergence and RSI’s neutral stance suggest momentum is intact but not yet overbought, leaving room for further upward thrust.

Options Playbook: Leverage Gamma and IV Expansion
• 200-day MA: $12.81 (above) • RSI: 52.7 (neutral) • Bollinger Bands: $11.72 (upper) • MACD: 0.375 (bullish) • Turnover Rate: 2.31% (high)

SPRY’s technicals point to a short-term reversal setup. Key levels to watch: the 200-day MA at $12.81 and the Bollinger Bands upper band at $11.72. A break above $12.81 could trigger a retest of the 52-week high, while a pullback to the 100-day MA ($10.98) offers a mid-term pivot. The options chain reveals two high-conviction plays:

• SPRY20260220C12.5 (Call, $12.5 strike, 2026-02-20 expiry):
- IV: 107.13% (volatility expansion)
- Leverage: 8.22% (high)
- Delta: 0.457 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.017 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.083 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: 650 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% up ($11.28): $0.78/share
- Why: High gamma and IV make this ideal for a sharp move. Theta decay is manageable for a 2026 expiry.

• SPRY20260320C12.5 (Call, $12.5 strike, 2026-03-20 expiry):
- IV: 98.19% (moderate)
- Leverage: 7.13% (high)
- Delta: 0.480 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.013 (lower decay)
- Gamma: 0.076 (strong)
- Turnover: 3,750 (very liquid)
- Payoff at 5% up ($11.28): $0.78/share
- Why: Higher liquidity and slightly lower IV make this a safer play for a sustained rally. Gamma ensures responsiveness to price swings.

Aggressive bulls should consider SPRY20260220C12.5 into a break above $12.81.

Backtest ARS Pharmaceuticals Stock Performance
The performance of SPRY after a 9% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows a mixed outlook. While the immediate post-surge day had a negative return with a -2.1% median next-day return and a 35% win-rate, the broader trend reveals a positive excess return by day 22, peaking at approximately +12% on day 26. This indicates that although there is an immediate pullback, momentum builds over time, offering an opportunity for investors to capitalize on the gains realized after the initial surge.

Act Now: Target $12.81 Breakout or Secure Gamma-Driven Gains
SPRY’s 9.37% surge is a technical breakout play, not a fundamental shift. The 200-day MA at $12.81 is the critical inflection point—break above it, and the 52-week high ($18.90) becomes a viable target. For now, the options market is pricing in volatility, with the 12.5-strike calls offering the best gamma and leverage. Sector leader Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is down 0.72%, underscoring the lack of sector-wide tailwinds. Watch for a $12.81 close or a retest of the Bollinger Bands upper band—either could validate this reversal.