Why Sportsbooks Like DraftKings May Favor Low-Scoring Super Bowl LIX

As the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles prepare to face off in Super Bowl LIX, sportsbooks like DraftKings are likely keeping a close eye on the betting trends and potential outcomes. One factor that could significantly impact the sportsbooks' bottom line is the total score of the game. In this article, we'll explore why a low-scoring Super Bowl LIX might be beneficial for sportsbooks and how they manage risk in such scenarios.

First, let's consider the factors contributing to a low-scoring Super Bowl. Both the Chiefs and Eagles have strong defenses, with the Chiefs ranked 16th in EPA per dropback and 13th in interceptions, and the Eagles ranked 12th in EPA per dropback and 15th in sacks. Additionally, both teams have efficient running games, with the Eagles ranked third in EPA per carry and the Chiefs ranked eighth. These defensive and running game strengths could lead to a more conservative, low-scoring game.



Moreover, the Eagles have the lowest passing rate (44.14%), which could indicate a more cautious approach to offense. The Chiefs also have a balanced target distribution, with no receiver accounting for more than 20% of targets. This balance could make it difficult for either team to generate explosive plays through the air, further contributing to a low-scoring game.

Now, let's discuss why a low-scoring Super Bowl LIX might be beneficial for sportsbooks like DraftKings. In a low-scoring game, there are fewer big bets on the over/under, which can help sportsbooks manage their risk more effectively. Additionally, a low-scoring game can lead to more even betting on both sides of the spread, further reducing the sportsbook's liability.