SPHR Surges 11% on Earnings — But Volume Fails to Confirm

Sphere (NYSE: SPHR) stock is making headlines in pre-market trading as it surges nearly 11% to $105.00. This sharp move is occurring against a backdrop of a broadly positive U.S. equity futures market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both up about 0.15%. The move raises a key question: why is SPHR stock surging so aggressively before the market opens?

The answer appears to lie in the company’s latest earnings report. Sphere posted revenue of $394.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, beating analyst expectations. GAAP earnings per share came in at $1.23, far above the expected loss of $0.26. The company’s namesake business saw a 62% year-over-year increase in revenue, largely driven by the massive success of The Wizard of Oz at Sphere experience, which sold over 2 million tickets.

That said, while strong earnings can justify a price move, it doesn’t always guarantee a follow-through. The pre-market rally lacks robust volume confirmation. At 620,843 shares traded, the volume is below the 20-day average and doesn’t reflect a surge of buying interest. This weak volume signal suggests the move might be driven by a smaller set of buyers rather than a broad-based buying frenzy.

Still, the technical picture looks supportive of a near-term upside. SPHR has been in a strong uptrend, with the stock breaking above the 20-day high of $101.89. It now sits at $105.00, which coincides with its nearest resistance level. RSI is at 57, not overly extended, and the stock remains well above its 50-day moving average of $92.02. This combination suggests that the price action is consistent with a potential breakout, though the volume is not confirming it.

Why is SPHR stock surging in pre-market trading?

The surge in SPHR stock is likely a reaction to the strong earnings report and the standout performance of its flagship event. The earnings beat was substantial, particularly in GAAP EPS, and the top-line growth in its core business is impressive. The Wizard of Oz event’s success is a clear differentiator and likely boosted investor confidence.

To put numbers on it, SPHR’s revenue growth and positive EPS came in far above the consensus, signaling strong operational momentum. This is a rare event in a mid-cap stock, especially one that’s been more volatile recently. The stock had already been trending higher over the past month, with a steady rise in volume and price. The latest report simply pushed it into a breakout scenario.

That said, the pre-market move lacks a strong volume tailwind. While the stock is up 10.76%, the volume is only at 620,000 shares, which is lower than the 20-day average of 683,000. This weak volume relative to price suggests the move is more of a technical breakout than a broad market conviction. This raises the question of how sustainable the rally is in the coming hours.

Still, given the strength of the earnings report and the stock’s positioning above key technical levels, the move seems justified at least in the near term. However, volume and participation in regular trading hours will be key to confirming the strength of the breakout.

What are the key technical levels and support/resistance for SPHR?

SPHR’s current price of $105.00 sits directly at its nearest resistance level and also at its nearest support level. This is an unusual technical situation, often a sign of a pivotal moment for the stock. The stock is in a strong uptrend, with its 20-day moving average at $95.27 and its 50-day at $92.02.

The nearest support level is at $105.00, which is also the nearest resistance. This suggests that the stock is currently in a transitional phase, where it’s either confirming a breakout or facing rejection. A move above $105.00 would confirm a breakout, while a pullback below this level would raise concerns about the sustainability of the current rally.

SPHR’s ATR (Average True Range) is at $4.31, which means the stock is quite volatile. Using ATR-based targets, a move up to $108.45 or $111.47 could be seen as potential short-term goals. On the downside, a pullback to the 50-day moving average at $92.02 is a critical support level to watch.

Put differently, SPHR is at a high-stakes inflection point. Traders and investors will want to closely watch how the stock performs at $105.00 in the next few hours to determine whether the pre-market breakout is valid.

What to watch for in the near term for SPHR?

In practice, the next few hours of regular trading will be crucial in determining the trajectory of SPHR. A strong volume confirmation at $105.00 or above would be a positive sign. Conversely, a failure to hold above this level could trigger a pullback toward the 50-day moving average.

The bottom line is that the stock is currently in a pending breakout scenario. The next few hours will provide the first confirmation or rejection of this move. Investors should also keep an eye on any follow-up news from the company, as well as broader market sentiment, which remains mildly positive.

SPHR is a mid-cap stock with a history of volatility, and today’s pre-market move could be the start of a meaningful trend or a false flag. For now, the key technical levels and volume action will be the best indicators of what comes next.