Spell Token/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price action shows a volatile 24-hour range between $0.000307 and $0.0003658, with a closing decline.
• Volume surged at the peak and pulled back afterward, suggesting short-term speculative activity.
• RSI indicates overbought levels earlier in the session, followed by bearish momentum.

Market Overview

Spell Token (SPELL) traded against Tether (USDT) over the last 24 hours, opening at $0.0003074 on 2025-11-11 12:00 ET and closing at $0.0003086 on 2025-11-12 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.0003658 and a low of $0.000307 during the session. Total volume for the pair was 98.6 billion units, with a notional turnover of $33.7 million.

The price action showed a clear bearish reversal trend after a sharp intraday rally in the early hours of the session, where buyers pushed the price up to the 24-hour high. However, selling pressure emerged around midday, eroding gains.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish engulfing pattern around 18:45–19:00 ET, suggesting a shift in momentum from bullish to bearish. The price also tested a key support level near $0.000325, which held briefly before breaking lower. A doji formed at 21:00 ET, indicating indecision among traders near the 24-hour low.

A descending channel can also be observed, with resistance forming around the 18:45 high of $0.0003658 and support at the 23:45 low of $0.0003296. A breakout below $0.0003216 may signal further bearish pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearish, with price closing below both after the 18:00 ET high. The 20SMA at $0.0003345 and 50SMA at $0.0003372 appear to form a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend.

For the daily timeframe, the 50-day SMA is $0.0003321, while the 200-day SMA is $0.0003275, indicating a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the late afternoon, signaling bearish momentum. The histogram also turned negative, confirming a pullback in bullish energy.

The RSI peaked near 68 early in the session, entering overbought territory, and later dropped to 42, indicating a bearish divergence. A reading below 40 may suggest further bearish potential, while a retest above 50 could hint at a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased during the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range around $0.000325 to a broader range between $0.000307 and $0.0003658. The price closed near the lower band, suggesting potential oversold conditions. A bounce off the lower band could trigger a short-term rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged dramatically between 18:15–19:00 ET, peaking at 2.3 billion units, confirming the intraday high. However, after 20:00 ET, volume declined sharply, suggesting that the bullish momentum lost steam.

The notional turnover followed a similar pattern, peaking at $16.7 million around 18:45 ET. Divergence between the price and volume during the 22:00–02:00 ET period indicates weakening conviction in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the intraday swing from $0.000307 to $0.0003658, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.0003412, and the 61.8% level is at $0.0003346. Price currently trades near the 61.8% level, suggesting it may find near-term support. A break below $0.000325 would bring the 78.6% level at $0.0003146 into play.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be based on the 20-day support breakout, where a trade is initiated when the close breaks below the 20-day low, with a fixed holding period of 5 trading days. The high volatility and strong bearish divergence observed in the last 24 hours suggest that such a strategy may find recent support levels valid, especially at $0.0003216 or $0.0003146. This strategy can be refined using the daily OHLCV data from the past three years to evaluate its effectiveness in current market conditions.