Spell Token/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price closed lower at $0.0002845 after a choppy 24-hour session.
• Volatility expanded slightly, with price fluctuating between $0.0002756 and $0.0002925.
• Volume surged in late evening (ET) before consolidating near the lower end of the range.

Opening Narrative

On 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, Spell Token/Tether (SPELLUSDT) opened at $0.0002846, reaching a high of $0.0002925 and a low of $0.0002756 before closing at $0.0002845. The 24-hour volume totaled 866,470,436.0, with a notional turnover of $246,892.38.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish bias, with a series of lower highs and lower lows. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 15:30–16:00 ET, signaling potential bearish momentum. A key support level appears to be forming around $0.000281–0.000282, while resistance is seen at $0.000290.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed into a bearish configuration, with the 50-SMA falling below the 20-SMA. On a longer time frame, the 100- and 200-day SMAs are in a neutral alignment, but the 50-day SMA is beginning to slope downward, suggesting a possible trend reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory, with the histogram shrinking slightly in the later part of the session, indicating weakening bearish momentum. The RSI hovered around the 40–50 level, suggesting a neutral market with no overbought or oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased slightly as the Bollinger Bands widened during the early part of the session. Price remained within the band range but spent much of the latter half of the day near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce or further consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the late evening (ET) as price dropped below $0.000286, confirming the bearish move. However, notional turnover did not increase in line with volume, suggesting mixed conviction. A divergence between volume and price may hint at a potential reversal if price stabilizes near the lower band.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level aligned with $0.0002825, which was tested multiple times during the session. The 61.8% level at $0.0002875 was rejected in the early morning, suggesting continued bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest could focus on detecting Bearish Engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart since January 1, 2022, using the confirmed symbol SPELLUSDT. Each identified pattern could trigger a short signal, with a target set at the nearest resistance level. This strategy would aim to capture directional momentum during key reversal points, with stops placed below bullish confirmation levels. The results could provide insights into the effectiveness of such patterns in this pair.