Spell Token/Tether Market Overview

• Price declined by 4.9% over the 24-hour period, closing at 0.0004948 after testing key resistance.
• High volatility observed midday, with a 15-minute high of 0.000512 followed by a sharp pullback.
• Volume spiked near 0.00051, confirming bearish momentum during key resistance levels.
• RSI and MACD signal overbought to oversold transition, hinting at potential near-term exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands widen during the drop, indicating increased volatility and potential range-bound recovery.

Spell Token (SPELLUSDT) opened at 0.0005048 on 2025-09-13 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.000512, and closed at 0.0004948 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume amounted to 503,513,615.0, with a notional turnover of $249,763.08. The price exhibited a sharp reversal after testing resistance near 0.00051.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a bearish breakdown from the 0.000506–0.000510 resistance cluster, with a long lower shadow forming at 0.000506 after a brief rally. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.0005095–0.0005105, signaling a shift in sentiment. A morning doji at 0.0005086–0.0005094 indicated indecision, followed by a decisive sell-off. Support levels at 0.0004954 and 0.0004919 appear critical for near-term stability.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, confirming short-term bearish momentum. The 50SMA is currently at 0.0005023, and the 100-day and 200-day SMAs (daily chart) are at 0.0004998 and 0.0004976, respectively. Price is trading below all major moving averages, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend unless a strong rally breaks above the 50SMA.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed bearishly into negative territory, with the histogram contracting after a midday spike, indicating waning bullish momentum. The RSI dropped from overbought territory (73) to neutral levels (46) by the close, reinforcing the bearish narrative. The combination suggests that the sell-off is likely to continue unless a rebound triggers a MACD crossover back above zero.

Bollinger Bands

The price broke below the lower Bollinger Band at 0.000494, indicating a high volatility period. The bands had been contracting around midday (0.000508–0.000510) before expanding following the sell-off. The current volatility may lead to a consolidation phase if the price finds support near the 20SMA or 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.0004976.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged around 0.00051–0.0005085 during the early afternoon, aligning with the bearish engulfing pattern and confirming the sell-off. Notional turnover mirrored volume trends, peaking at over $3,000 during the breakdown. The divergence between volume and price during the rebound attempt suggests weak conviction in the bullish direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.000504–0.000512 swing include 0.000508 (23.6%), 0.000506 (38.2%), and 0.000502 (61.8%). The price failed to hold above the 38.2% level and continued to fall. If the 61.8% level at 0.000502 is broken, the next Fibonacci target is 0.000498 (78.6%).

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy for this scenario could involve a short position triggered on a break below the 38.2% Fibonacci level (0.000506) and a closing 15-minute candle below the 50SMA. A stop-loss would be placed just above the nearest resistance (e.g., 0.000511) to limit risk. A take-profit target could be aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.000502 or the 200-day SMA at 0.0004976. This approach capitalizes on the confirmed bearish momentum and key support levels identified in the analysis. The use of RSI and MACD could further confirm the timing of entry and exit points, especially when divergence is detected.