Spell Token/Tether Market Overview: 24-Hour Volatility and Key Support

• Price declined 4.7% over 24 hours with oversold RSI and bearish volume divergence.
• Key support at 0.0004481 appears robust, with Fibonacci 61.8% aligning with 0.0004475.
• Volatility expanded in final hours, with price closing near 0.0004535 after midday selloff.
• Bollinger Bands showed contraction earlier, followed by breakout-style action after 13:00 ET.
• High turnover spikes near 0.0004555 and 0.0004481 suggest key liquidity levels.

At 12:00 ET−1 on October 3, Spell Token/Tether (SPELLUSDT) opened at 0.0004612 and traded as high as 0.0004687 before closing at 0.0004535 at 12:00 ET on October 4. The pair hit a low of 0.0004446, with total volume of 1,129,142,423 and turnover of approximately $516,000 (assuming 1 USDT = $1).

The structure of the 24-hour price action showed a bearish bias with a strong selloff after 13:00 ET. Price formed bearish engulfing patterns as it broke through key psychological support levels, notably at 0.0004515 and 0.0004481. A doji emerged near 0.0004481, signaling potential indecision, while a strong rejection at 0.0004475 suggests short-term support. The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the recent bearish swing aligns with this level, reinforcing its significance.

The 15-minute MACD showed bearish divergence after 13:00 ET, with histogram bars declining despite a modest price rebound. RSI dipped into oversold territory (below 30) near the session low, but failed to spark a meaningful rebound, indicating bearish exhaustion. Bollinger Bands contracted earlier in the session, with the price breaking out to the downside after 13:00 ET. This expansion in volatility could foreshadow a continuation of bearish pressure or a potential bounce from key supports.

Volume spiked dramatically in the hours after 13:00 ET, especially between 13:00 and 15:30 ET, with turnover aligning closely with price declines. This confirms the bearish momentum. A divergence between price and turnover occurred between 15:45 and 16:00 ET, suggesting waning selling pressure. However, this was followed by another selloff as price broke through the 0.0004515 level. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart sits below the 20-period line, reinforcing the bearish bias.

The backtest hypothesis is built on the convergence of price, volume, and technical indicators. By applying Fibonacci retracement levels and aligning them with Bollinger Band breaks and volume spikes, the strategy targets entries at 0.0004481–0.0004515 for short-term long positions or tight short setups. A stop-loss could be placed above the 0.0004555 level, with targets at 0.0004475 and 0.0004452, depending on the trend’s strength. The strategy emphasizes high-probability setups using confirmed breakouts and divergence in momentum indicators.