SPCX Tests Its $135 IPO Price After a Record Share Unlock

SpaceX (SPCX) surged about 16 percent on Friday to close at $133.11, one day after the first major post-IPO lockup released up to 911.5 million shares, according to Business Standard and Public.com. The two-day rebound of about 23 percent has pushed the stock back toward the $135 IPO price for the first time since it fell below that level last month. The conflict is now clear: bulls need a sustained close above $135 to confirm the recovery, while a rejection there would keep the slide from the June peak intact.

Why This Setup Matters Now

SPCX entered the technical-analysis queue after a 15 percent-plus surge that placed it among the day's biggest movers, with average daily volume near 114 million shares, according to Timothy Sykes and Nasdaq.com. The rally followed the first expiration of the company's post-IPO lockup, which expanded the public float from under 5 percent to above 12 percent of shares, as reported by Benzinga.

Friday's session data is summarized below from Public.com, Business Standard, Nasdaq.com, and Crypto Times.

Field	Value
Symbol	SPCX
Name	Space Exploration Technologies Corp
Exchange	NASDAQ
Close (Aug 7)	$133.11
Day change	+15.8%
Two-day change	about +23%
Avg daily volume	~114M shares
52-week range	$104.83 to $225.64
Market cap	~$1.7 trillion (derived)
Source	Public.com, Nasdaq.com

Quick Read

The main question is whether the post-unlock rebound can clear the IPO price, which has acted as a ceiling since the stock fell below it last month.

Question	Answer
Main setup	Post-unlock rebound into the IPO price
Core conflict	$135 ceiling versus $110 support
Short-term bias	Bullish momentum, capped below $135
Primary risk	Lockup headlines and wide gaps
Reference	CoinsProbe, Public.com

Technical Bias

The daily chart still sits below the June high, so the medium-term trend is not yet confirmed bullish even though the short-term bounce is strong.

Signal	Read
Daily trend	Neutral, below the June peak
Two-day momentum	Bullish, about +23%
Volume	Heavy, absorbed unlock supply
Position vs IPO price	Just below $135
Overall bias	Neutral-to-bullish
Source	Nasdaq.com, Business Standard

Key Levels To Watch

Levels below are marked as derived zones where they are not confirmed on the chart. The $135 IPO price and the $104.85 to $110 support area come from Business Standard and CoinsProbe.

Level	Zone
Resistance 1	$135, IPO price
Resistance 2	$140 to $150, derived
Resistance 3	$172, rounding-bottom target
Support 1	$110, derived watch area
Support 2	$104.85 to $107
Stop reference	Below $104.85
Source	CoinsProbe, Public.com

Scenario Map

Scenario	Trigger	Likely path
Bullish	Daily close above $135	Toward $140, then $150
Base case	Range trade $110 to $135	Churn into Aug 20
Bearish	Daily close below $110	Retest $104.85 to $107

Momentum And Volume Check

Volume and flow data below come from Nasdaq.com and Seeking Alpha.

Metric	Reading
Avg daily volume	~114M shares
Retail flow	Net buying streak since IPO
Volume on rally	Heavy, absorbed unlock supply
Next catalyst	Unlock tranche on Aug 20
Short-term	Extended after two-day pop

What Would Change The View

Condition	Impact
Daily close above $140	Upgrade to bullish
Daily close below $110	Downgrade to bearish
Break under $104.85	Recovery setup invalidated
Volume fade into $135	Expect a pullback toward $120

Bottom Line

Bottom line: SPCX remains neutral-to-bullish as long as it holds the $110 support zone. A move above $135 would strengthen the setup, while a break below $110 would weaken the chart.

Summary

• SPCX rallied about 16 percent on Friday to $133.11, near its $135 IPO price, after absorbing the first post-IPO lockup, per Business Standard.
• The two-day rebound of about 23 percent lifted the stock off the $104.85 to $110 support zone described by CoinsProbe.
• Bias is neutral-to-bullish while price holds above $110; a close above $135 opens the path toward $140 and $150.
• Volume and retail flow remain supportive, but the next unlock tranche on Aug 20 is a volatility catalyst.
• A daily close below $104.85 would invalidate the recovery setup.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Technical indicators can help frame risk and momentum, but they do not guarantee future price movement.