Spark/Tether Market Overview – October 28, 2025

• Spark/Tether (SPKUSDT) traded in a tight range, closing near the day's low amid moderate volume.
• A bearish divergence in RSI and declining turnover suggest waning bullish momentum.
• Key support at 0.038357 and resistance at 0.039923 were tested, with price trending downward.
• Bollinger Bands tightened mid-session, signaling potential for a breakout or reversal.
• Volume surged during the morning ET rally but faded during the afternoon, hinting at exhaustion.

Spark/Tether (SPKUSDT) opened at 0.038976 on October 27 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.04004 before retreating to a low of 0.037911. The pair closed at 0.038629 on October 28 at 12:00 ET. Total volume across the 24-hour window was approximately 78.2 million SPK, with a notional turnover of roughly $3.02 million, reflecting active but uneven trading pressure.

The price action suggests a bearish bias, as SPKUSDT tested but failed to break above the key resistance level at 0.039923, and later found support at 0.038357. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:45 ET on October 27, indicating a shift in market sentiment. Additionally, a doji formed at 01:15 ET on October 28, signaling indecision among traders during the overnight session.

The 15-minute moving averages show that the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below both the 100- and 200-period MAs, suggesting that the broader trend remains neutral to bearish. SPKUSDT remains below its 50-day MA, indicating that sellers still hold the upper hand over buyers.

MACD and RSI readings indicate waning momentum. RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory late on October 28, but failed to produce a strong rebound, hinting at a lack of follow-through in buying pressure. Meanwhile, MACD turned negative and crossed below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish signal. Bollinger Bands had contracted sharply during the early morning hours, suggesting a potential breakout was looming, yet the price action remained range-bound for most of the session.

Volume patterns tell a mixed story. A sharp spike in volume occurred during the midday ET rally, with a peak of 4.4 million SPK at 17:30 ET on October 27. However, volume declined significantly in the afternoon and overnight sessions, suggesting exhaustion in the bullish thrust. Notional turnover followed a similar trend, with a peak of ~$163,500 during the same period. A divergence between price and volume—where price made a higher high but volume failed to confirm—further signals weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the October 27 swing high (0.039923) and the October 28 swing low (0.037911) highlight key psychological levels. The 61.8% retracement level at 0.03876 and the 38.2% level at 0.03884 were tested and rejected in the early hours of October 28. The 50% level at 0.03882 also failed to hold, suggesting sellers continue to dominate the near-term outlook.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described aims to build signals based on RSI and daily price action, specifically a 3-day-hold framework. While SPKUSDT’s data supports the identification of RSI overbought and oversold conditions, as well as clear candlestick patterns, the lack of resolvable RSI data from a verifiable source limits the ability to generate a full backtest. To proceed, confirmation of the exact trading pair (e.g., SPK/USDT on Binance) or an alternative well-supported symbol would be necessary. For illustration, a similar framework applied to a liquid pair like BTCUSDT would provide a clearer historical performance baseline, which could then be extrapolated to SPKUSDT’s current structure and volatility profile.