Spain's July CPI rises 2.7% year-on-year; estimate was 2.4%

Spain's July CPI rises 2.7% year-on-year; estimate was 2.4%

Madrid, Spain — July 2, 2025 — Spain's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July 2025 rose by 2.7% year-on-year, surpassing the estimated 2.4%. This increase, while slightly higher than anticipated, reflects a broader trend in the European Union (EU) where inflation expectations have been revised down for the near term.

According to the latest survey conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) on July 25, 2025 [1], respondents revised their expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), down by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 and 2026 to 2.0% and 1.8% respectively, compared to the previous survey. For 2027, expectations remained unchanged at 2.0%. Core HICP inflation, which excludes energy and food, was also revised down slightly for 2026 and 2027 to 2.0%.

The ECB survey also indicated that real GDP growth expectations were revised up by 0.2 percentage points for 2025 but down by 0.1 percentage points for 2026. Growth expectations for 2027 and the longer term remained unchanged at 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. The expected trajectory of the unemployment rate was broadly unchanged, with the unemployment rate expected to average 6.3% in 2025 and 2026 and to fall to 6.2% in 2027.

The upward revision in Spain's CPI is in line with the broader trend of downward revision in inflation expectations for the nearer term, indicating a more cautious outlook on economic growth and inflation in the EU. This development is likely to influence monetary policy decisions and investment strategies in the region.

References:
[1] European Central Bank. (2025, July 25). ECB Press Release. Retrieved from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2025/html/ecb.pr250725~2c8aaa2009.en.html