SpaceX's 911.5M Unlock Starts Now-Can August Earnings Beat the Selloff Fears?

SpaceX's debut earnings line up with the first lockup unlock

This is primarily a liquidity event, with fundamentals a close second. SpaceX has tied its first earnings report to a lockup expiration that can free up to 911.5 million shares for insiders on the second full trading day after earnings, Aug. 6. That timing matters because the stock is already vulnerable: shares are down 33% from the post-IPO record close, and earlier this month they traded near the $135 IPO price. When a stock enters an unlock like this, the first question is not how strong the business is, but how much supply the market can absorb.

What needs to happen this week

Consensus calls for roughly $6.8 billion in revenue and a $0.22 per-share loss. If results merely track those expectations, bulls still need to prove demand can hold up as new shares become available. Bears can argue that even a decent report may not matter if investors are more focused on potential shareholder selling than on near-term operating progress. The setup is asymmetric: weakness before the unlock suggests sentiment is not fully aligned with a clean rebound.

Why some investors still see opportunity

Morgan Stanley is arguing for that view, saying there is a disconnect between bearish sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals. It kept its Overweight rating and $300 price target even as lockup fears spread. That does not settle the next few days, though. Bulls still need price to absorb real share supply, not just a bullish narrative.

The unlock is staged, so supply risk extends well beyond August

The key change is timing. August is only the first checkpoint in a multi-month release schedule. SpaceX structured the unlock in stages, with 20% of eligible locked-up stock released first, plus an additional 10% if the stock closes at least 30% above the IPO price in five of the ten trading days leading into the report. On top of that, lockup expirations through December would raise tradable shares to 40% of the float. This is less like a one-day event than a rolling supply schedule.

One-day shock or a longer pressure phase?

Bulls still have a credible argument if they believe the disconnect between bearish sentiment and largely unchanged fundamentals will ultimately matter more than a temporary liquidity surge. Bears point to different evidence: a 'wave' of selling is likely once lockups expire, and CNBC reported bearish positioning had reached about a third of the public float before the first unlock. The balanced read is simple: the near-term pressure path looks more demanding because supply can keep arriving before demand fully stabilizes.

Why late fall remains a watch period

At IPO, only 4.9% of shares were freely tradable. By December, that could rise much further, and the biggest scheduled change comes later on Day 366, when Musk's stake becomes eligible. That does not mean those shares will automatically sell, but it does mean the market will have to price in a much larger potential float over time. In a stock with a thin tradable base, that overhang alone can cap bids even before actual selling shows up.

The clearest signals are price levels, not narratives

What matters this week

Treat this as a liquidity test first and a valuation debate second. Bulls need the stock to hold above the $135 IPO price around the second full trading day after earnings, then show enough strength to start moving toward the 30%-above-IPO condition that can unlock more shares. If buyers cannot absorb that setup, a rerating will be hard to justify. Bears regain control if the stock breaks below $135 and stays there through that same post-earnings window.

A downside level to watch is not purely theoretical. Some investors now expect a move toward $100 as lockup restrictions begin expiring. Even so, that is not inevitable. SpaceX's schedule makes clear that eligible to sell does not mean actual selling, so this is still a supply-risk story rather than proof of confirmed selling.

What to watch next

• Bullish setup: earnings hold up, the stock stays above $135, and additional unlocks happen without a fresh breakdown.
• Bearish setup: price loses $135 through the second trading day after earnings and the market starts leaning into deeper downside.
• Next signposts: earnings quality, the pace of unlock availability, and whether buyers absorb supply rather than chase it lower.