SpaceX Is Already Below Its $135 IPO Price. Tesla Could Be Next as Musk's Smart Money Exits

SpaceX Below $135 Turns the Story Into a Supply Test

SpaceX is now trading around its IPO price of $135 after the offering was priced at a $1.77 trillion valuation. Once a stock slips through the issue price, the market tends to shift from judging the vision to judging who still has real skin in the game.

The recent price action has been harsh. Reuters reports shares are still down 33% from the post-IPO record close. At the same time, Musk's broader empire has seen roughly $1.5 trillion in combined market cap erased since mid-June, with Tesla also slipping 18% since earnings. Post-IPO stocks can wobble, but a break below IPO price is often the market's first hard signal that early optimism is fading.

What matters most now is not the story but the filing. After earnings, employees and some early investors could bring 911.5 million shares to market, with lockup expirations through December potentially lifting tradable stock to 40% of the float by year-end. If investors view the listing as an exit moment for investors who got in early, public holders can stop feeling like long-term partners very quickly.

SpaceX's Next Test Is Earnings Plus Lockup Release

The next few days matter because the market will try to price two shocks in sequence. SpaceX reports at next Tuesday's earnings, and the first lockup release begins just two days later. In many post-IPO stocks, volatility cools after earnings. Here, traders are being asked to bet that fresh supply will not overwhelm the move.

Options are pricing a wide swing

Options imply a 15% post-earnings swing and 122 implied volatility. That is not a calm setup. It suggests the market is bracing for either a sharp fundamental repricing or a rush to adjust positions before the share supply gets heavier. The usual rule that volatility falls after earnings may not apply cleanly if insiders start selling right away.

Why the tape can get heavy

This is the mechanism Tesla investors should watch: more than 900 million shares become tradable immediately, representing 20% of the eligible locked-up stock. Then the rollout keeps going. Reuters says lockup expirations through December could raise tradable shares to 40% of the float by year-end.

For market structure, that matters more than the narrative. A stock can absorb disappointment if supply is tight. It usually handles that much new eligible material differently.

Watch these catalysts over the next few days:

• If selling remains mostly theoretical, SpaceX can stabilize.
• If insiders begin using the window, the market may treat rallies as exit opportunities rather than reasons to add.

Why Tesla Investors Should Focus on SpaceX's Structure, Not Its Narrative

The useful lesson from SpaceX is not the vision. It is the ownership and supply setup.

Tesla investors should pay less attention to moonshot storytelling and more attention to whether the market is being sold a similar mix of big vision, tight near-term alignment, and future supply that could expand faster than support forms. Tesla is already showing weaker price action, with an 18% drop since earnings, while SpaceX carries the more obvious structural risk around lockup releases.

How the comparison cuts both ways

Bulls have a real case. They will point to Tesla's role in the broader tech sector and the wider AI-and-data buildout, which supports the idea that the market story is not pure fiction. They may also argue that Tesla is already more grounded than SpaceX because SpaceX was valued at a record $1.77 trillion valuation after raising a record $75 billion, while Tesla is trading as an operating business with a more visible share base.

Bears have the cleaner signal. In SpaceX, early buyers may be treating the listing as an exit moment for investors who got in early, especially with restrictions on insiders, employees, and early investors set to lift over the next several months. Reuters also notes that Musk retains 82% control, which raises the alignment question: if the founder already has control and financing flexibility, why should public investors assume selling pressure will stay low?

For Tesla, that is the real test now. If Musk can raise large sums and keep control without much support from his own listing, the market may ask a sharper question: how much skin in the game is public money really getting?

What would confirm or break the SpaceX analogy

Confirms it - Tesla keeps sliding after the current weakness, with the 18% drop since earnings turning into a broader break in support. - Institutional accumulation stalls or reverses as the market starts focusing on future supply instead of the long-term story. - Any new financing or corporate maneuvering comes without clearer insider commitment, making Tesla look more like a capital-raising platform than an aligned ownership story.

Breaks it - Tesla stabilizes and the market starts rewarding operating progress rather than fixating on future sellable shares. - Strong buying from institutions shows up in the tape, suggesting smart money still sees Tesla as a core holding rather than a staged exit. - The stock proves it can hold gains without needing a fresh narrative catalyst, which would separate it from SpaceX's post-IPO rout psychology.