Southern Copper SCCO 2025Q2 Earnings Preview Upside Potential Amid Strong Molybdenum Production

Forward-Looking Analysis
Southern Copper (SCCO) is set to report its Q2 2025 earnings on July 18th, with analysts predicting an earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05 and a revenue of $2.89 billion. The company's trailing EPS stands at $4.57, with an expected decrease of 1.93% next year from $4.66 to $4.57 per share. According to forecasts, SCCO's earnings for 2025 will be $3,586,700,000, whereas five Wall Street analysts average predictions are slightly higher, at $3,703,857,760. The company has shown consistent performance by beating previous quarter expectations. The molybdenum production, expected to be 27,400 tons this year, is 5% above initial plans, offering a strong production outlook. EBITDA, EBIT, EBT, and net margins indicate robust profitability, with notable improvements over past quarters, reflecting the company's efficient operational management.

Historical Performance Review
In Q1 2025, Southern Copper reported revenue of $3.12 billion, net income of $949.10 million, EPS of $1.19, and gross profit of $1.80 billion. The company delivered earnings and revenue surprises of 5.31% and 4.67%, respectively, showcasing its strong financial performance and operational efficiency, surpassing analyst expectations.

Additional News
Southern Copper announced plans to produce 27,400 tons of molybdenum in 2025, exceeding initial expectations by 5%. This production growth reflects strategic enhancements in operational capabilities. Despite a 2.6% quarter-on-quarter drop in molybdenum production, the overall production target is a positive indicator of the company’s capacity to manage and optimize resources effectively. The company maintains robust leverage ratios, with a Debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.45x, demonstrating strong financial health. Additionally, Southern Copper's dividend per share has increased by 11.3%, indicating solid shareholder returns. The company is well-positioned in terms of profitability, with a net margin expected to reach 33.23% in upcoming quarters.

Summary & Outlook
Southern Copper demonstrates strong financial health, characterized by impressive profitability margins and efficient operational execution. The company's growth catalysts include increased molybdenum production and favorable EPS and revenue forecasts. The recent dividend increase suggests confidence in sustained financial performance. However, the slight projected decline in EPS next year poses a potential risk. Overall, the outlook for Southern Copper is bullish, backed by robust production capabilities and strategic financial management, aligning with analyst expectations for continued revenue and earnings growth.