Southern Copper: Q4 Earnings Snapshot

As the market eagerly awaits Southern Copper's (SCCO) Q4 earnings report, analysts and investors alike are focusing on the key factors that could drive the company's performance. With a year-over-year increase in earnings expected, the consensus outlook is for quarterly earnings of $1.02 per share, representing a +79% change, and revenues of $2.78 billion, up 21.1% from the year-ago quarter. However, a closer look at the company's earnings surprise history and recent estimate revisions reveals a more nuanced picture.



Over the past four quarters, Southern Copper has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times. In the last reported quarter, the company delivered a surprise of +2.68% by reporting earnings of $1.15 per share, compared to the expected $1.12 per share. This positive earnings surprise history suggests that the company has been able to exceed analysts' expectations in recent quarters. However, it is essential to consider the most recent estimate revisions, as they can provide valuable insights into the company's earnings prospects.



In the case of Southern Copper, the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, indicating that analysts have recently become bearish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of -13.30%, making it difficult to conclusively predict that Southern Copper will beat the consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter. Additionally, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), further complicating the outlook for an earnings beat.



The market expects Southern Copper to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues. The consensus outlook is for quarterly earnings of $1.02 per share, representing a year-over-year change of +79%, and revenues of $2.78 billion, up 21.1% from the year-ago quarter. This growth is driven by the company's strong performance in the mining sector and its ability to capitalize on favorable market conditions.



Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged. This indicates that covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period, but there has been no significant change in the overall expectation. This consistency suggests that the analysts' expectations for Southern Copper's Q4 earnings have not significantly shifted during this time frame.

In conclusion, while Southern Copper's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank suggest a lower likelihood of an earnings beat, investors should also consider the company's earnings surprise history, revenue growth expectations, estimate revisions trend, and management's guidance on the earnings call. These factors, combined with other market conditions and the company's overall performance, will help investors make a more informed decision about the company's Q4 earnings report. As the earnings release approaches, investors should stay tuned for any updates or changes in the company's outlook and remain vigilant in their analysis of the mining sector's dynamics.