Southern Copper Plummets 2.76% Amid Copper Market Turmoil and Strategic Shifts

Summary
• Southern Copper (SCCO) trades at $100.535, down 2.76% from its previous close of $103.39
• Intraday range spans $100.251 to $106.0, reflecting heightened volatility
• Institutional investors like JPMorgan and UBS AM adjust holdings amid sector consolidation
• Copper prices hover near $4.5/lb, pressured by U.S. tariff adjustments and Chinese refining dynamics
Today’s sharp decline in SCCO mirrors broader copper market fragility, driven by regulatory shifts, supply chain disruptions, and institutional positioning. The stock’s 2.76% drop underscores investor caution as the sector navigates a pivotal inflection point.

Copper Market Volatility and Institutional Positioning Drive SCCO’s Slide
Southern Copper’s 2.76% intraday decline is a direct reflection of the copper market’s precarious balance between surging demand and constrained supply. The Anglo American-Teck merger, while bullish for long-term copper demand, has triggered short-term jitters as investors recalibrate for regulatory hurdles and execution risks. Meanwhile, Chinese refining capacity surpluses and U.S. tariff adjustments have created a dual headwind for copper prices, which in turn weigh on SCCO’s valuation. Institutional selling by Advisors Asset Management Inc. (49% reduction in holdings) and mixed analyst ratings (four Hold, three Sell) further amplify near-term uncertainty.

Copper Sector in Turmoil as Freeport-McMoRan Slides 5.97%
The copper sector is under pressure as Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the sector’s largest producer, plunges 5.97% amid broader market jitters. This synchronized decline highlights the sector’s vulnerability to macroeconomic headwinds, including U.S. tariff adjustments and China’s refining capacity surplus. While SCCO’s fundamentals remain robust (52W high of $117.46, 3.9% dividend yield), the sector’s collective exposure to geopolitical and regulatory risks has created a risk-off environment. Investors are now scrutinizing whether SCCO’s 156,000-tonne output expansion by 2027 can offset near-term volatility.

Options and Technicals: Navigating SCCO’s Volatile Landscape
• MACD: 1.23 (above signal line 0.38), indicating bullish momentum
• RSI: 71.4 (overbought), suggesting potential near-term correction
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $100.535 (lower band $92.095), signaling oversold territory
• 200D MA: $95.06 (below current price), indicating long-term support
• Key Levels: 200D MA at $95.06, 50D MA at $98.19, and 200D support range $96.34–$96.95
• Leveraged ETFs: No direct ETFs provided, but COPX (Global X Copper Miners ETF) offers diversified exposure
Top Options Contracts:
• SCCO20250919P97.5 (Put, $97.5 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 31.06% (moderate)
- Leverage: 103.52% (high)
- Delta: -0.28 (moderate bearish sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0455 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0622 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 5,929 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $2.03 per contract (max profit if price drops below $97.5)
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this put ideal for capitalizing on a short-term breakdown below $97.5.
• SCCO20250919C100 (Call, $100 strike, 2025-09-19):
- IV: 38.80% (moderate)
- Leverage: 34.39% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.54 (moderate bullish sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1762 (high time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0586 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 22,778 (highly liquid)
- Payoff (5% downside): $0.00 (out-of-the-money if price drops below $100)
- Why: Liquid and moderately leveraged, this call suits aggressive bulls expecting a rebound above $100.535.
Trading Setup: Aggressive short-sellers may target SCCO20250919P97.5 for a breakdown below $97.5, while bulls should watch for a rebound above $100.535. The 200D MA at $95.06 remains critical for long-term positioning.

Backtest Southern Copper Stock Performance
Below is the event-backtest of Southern Copper (SCCO.N) following every day the stock’s intraday low fell 3 % or more below the previous close, between 1 Jan 2022 and 9 Sep 2025. We detected 161 such events during the period.Key take-aways (close-price basis, equal-weighted):• Median next-day bounce was +0.17 %; the edge fades quickly and remains statistically insignificant through 30 trading days. • Average 30-day return after the plunge events was +2.40 % versus a benchmark drift of +2.26 %; win-rate 55 %. • No clear out- or under-performance: the −3 % intraday flush does not, by itself, create a reliable trading edge in SCCO over the tested window.Assumptions & auto-choices:1. “Intraday plunge” defined as (Day’s Low ÷ Previous-Close – 1) ≤ −0.03.2. Price data sourced daily (OHLC) from 31 Dec 2021 to 9 Sep 2025 to ensure previous-close availability.3. Backtest window: 2022-01-01 – 2025-09-09; price type = close. These defaults align with the user timeframe “from 2022 to now”.You can explore the full distribution and cumulative-return curves in the interactive panel:Feel free to dive deeper or adjust the plunge threshold, holding horizon, or risk filters if you’d like to refine the analysis further.

Southern Copper at Crossroads: Act on Key Levels or Risk Missing the Rebound
Southern Copper’s 2.76% decline reflects a market at a crossroads, balancing long-term copper demand from the energy transition against near-term supply and regulatory headwinds. The stock’s proximity to its 200D MA at $95.06 and 52W low of $73.37 suggests a potential floor, but volatility remains high. Investors should prioritize monitoring the $97.5 support level and $100.535 intraday pivot. Meanwhile, sector leader Freeport-McMoRan’s 5.97% drop underscores the sector’s fragility. For those with a contrarian outlook, SCCO20250919P97.5 offers a high-leverage play on a breakdown, while COPX provides diversified copper exposure. Act now: Watch for a $97.5 breakdown or a rebound above $100.535 to dictate next steps.