South Korea's Lee Jae-myung Remains Presidential Frontrunner Amid Leadership Chaos

South Korea's former opposition leader Lee Jae-myung remains the frontrunner in the presidential election, despite facing legal challenges. He is likely to compete against former Acting President Han Duck-soo or a rival from the ruling People Power Party. The winner faces the task of restoring stability and confidence in South Korea's democracy and protecting its economy against Donald Trump's tariff campaign. Lee's tenure is unlikely to be smooth sailing due to ongoing legal challenges and partisan brinkmanship.

The upcoming presidential election in South Korea is set to be a pivotal moment for the country's democracy and economy, with former opposition leader Lee Jae-myung leading the polls despite legal challenges. The Supreme Court of South Korea is expected to deliver a ruling on Thursday that could potentially disqualify Lee from running in the June 3 election [1].

Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the liberal Democratic Party, leads opinion polls to win the snap presidential election sparked by former conservative president Yoon Suk Yeol’s ouster over his imposition of martial law. However, Lee is embroiled in several criminal trials, including an election law violation case that is being closely watched [1]. A ruling that removes him from the ballot could further deepen divisions in society and hinder efforts to steer Asia’s fourth-largest economy through the choppy waters of U.S. tariffs.

Meanwhile, acting leader Han Duck-soo is expected to resign on Thursday to clear a path for him to join the race to become the country’s permanent president [1]. Han’s resignation will allow Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok to stand in as acting president as required by law.

South Korea’s export growth stalled in April, with the value of shipments adjusted for working-day differences slipping 0.7% from a year earlier [2]. This slowdown is a worrisome sign for the trade-driven economy, which is grappling with U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff campaign. The trade war is expected to continue to pose significant challenges to South Korea’s economy, with exports to the U.S. falling 6.8% in April [3].

The Bank of Korea decided to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75% in April, but warned of a significant increase in downside risks to growth [2]. The won, Asia’s weakest performer in 2024, has posted gains against the dollar for the year to date, but the political turmoil and trade uncertainties continue to weigh on the economy.

The winner of the presidential election will face the daunting task of restoring stability and confidence in South Korea’s democracy and protecting its economy against Donald Trump’s tariff campaign. Lee Jae-myung’s tenure is unlikely to be smooth sailing due to ongoing legal challenges and partisan brinkmanship.

References:
[1] https://stratnewsglobal.com/world-news/south-korea-supreme-court-to-rule-on-lee-jae-myungs-election-fate/
[2] https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/south-koreas-export-growth-stalls-as-us-tariffs-sap-demand
[3] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/south-korea-exports-seen-falling-010351213.html