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South Korea has issued a stark warning that a proposed trade deal with the United States could trigger a financial crisis akin to its 1997 economic collapse if safeguards are not included. President Lee Jae Myung emphasized that the absence of a currency swap agreement and the U.S. demand for $350 billion in South Korean investments could destabilize the won, echoing the vulnerabilities that led to the 1997 crisis [1]. The deal, verbally agreed in July, would see the U.S. reduce tariffs on South Korean goods in exchange for the investment package and $100 billion in U.S. energy purchases . However, negotiations remain stalled over the structure of the investments and their commercial viability [1].
The dispute centers on the U.S. insistence that Washington retain control over the allocation of South Korean investments, a move Lee criticized as lacking transparency. He noted that South Korea’s foreign exchange reserves of $410 billion pale in comparison to Japan’s $820 billion, which Tokyo leveraged in its trade deal with the U.S. through existing swap lines and a strong yen. South Korea has proposed a foreign exchange swap to mitigate currency shocks but has yet to secure U.S. agreement [1]. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has pressured Seoul to accept the terms or face tariffs, which Lee dismissed as an ultimatum [1].
The trade talks are intertwined with broader geopolitical tensions. Lee highlighted growing rivalries between a “democratic, capitalist camp” (including South Korea, Japan, and the U.S.) and a “socialist camp” (China, Russia, and North Korea). He warned that South Korea’s geographic position risks placing it at the forefront of escalating military tensions, particularly as North Korea deepens its ties with Russia [1]. Lee also expressed concern over the Trump administration’s recent immigration raid at a Hyundai battery plant in Georgia, which detained 300 South Korean workers. While he praised Trump for allowing the workers to stay, he stressed the need to address the incident to preserve bilateral trust [1].
The U.S.-South Korea alliance remains a cornerstone of regional security, bolstered by 28,500 U.S. troops on the peninsula. However, Trump’s demands for South Korea to increase defense contributions and the potential for troop reductions have added complexity to negotiations. Lee acknowledged that while Seoul and Washington agree on enhancing defense cooperation, Trump’s administration seeks to decouple trade and security discussions [1]. This approach, Lee argued, risks prolonging the trade deal and exacerbating uncertainty for investors [1].
As Lee prepares for a New York trip to address the UN General Assembly and chair a Security Council meeting—historic firsts for a South Korean president—the unresolved trade issues remain a shadow over his diplomatic agenda. With no plans to meet Trump in New York or advance trade talks, the focus shifts to whether the two nations can reconcile their differences before the next year. Failure to do so could not only jeopardize the deal but also strain the long-standing alliance amid a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape [1].
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