Somalia's Break with the UAE: Implications for Regional Infrastructure and Security Investments

The recent diplomatic rupture between Somalia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) marks a pivotal shift in East Africa's geopolitical and economic landscape. This split, driven by Somalia's objections to UAE-backed recognition of Somaliland's autonomy, has disrupted longstanding partnerships in infrastructure and security. As the UAE reevaluates its investments, the region faces both risks and opportunities, with alternative actors like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China stepping into the void. This analysis explores the implications of this realignment for East Africa's development and stability.

The UAE's Role and the Diplomatic Split

The UAE had emerged as a critical player in Somalia's infrastructure and security sectors, investing heavily in port development, energy projects, and military cooperation. For instance, DP World's port concessions in Somaliland and Somalia were central to the UAE's strategy to dominate regional trade routes. Additionally, the UAE provided direct budgetary support and security training to counter al Shabaab, a militant group that has advanced to within 50 kilometers of Mogadishu. However, tensions escalated in 2023 when the UAE's diplomatic recognition of Somaliland-widely seen as a challenge to Somalia's territorial integrity- prompted a sharp deterioration in relations. This rift has stalled or reevaluated UAE-funded projects, creating a vacuum in critical infrastructure and security funding.

Risks to Infrastructure and Security

The diplomatic split exacerbates existing vulnerabilities in Somalia's infrastructure and security frameworks. The Somali National Army (SNA) remains underfunded and poorly equipped, relying heavily on the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission to counter al Shabaab. With UAE security partnerships now in jeopardy, the SNA's capacity to defend key infrastructure-such as the Port of Mogadishu-remains uncertain. Meanwhile, stalled infrastructure projects, including transportation and energy upgrades, risk entrenching underdevelopment and prolonging instability.

The broader East African region also faces risks. The UAE's investments in ports and logistics across Djibouti, Eritrea, and Tanzania were designed to position Dubai as a trade hub. A reduction in UAE activity could disrupt regional connectivity, particularly in the Red Sea, where maritime security is already fragile due to piracy and geopolitical rivalries.

Alternative Investors: Opportunities and Challenges

As the UAE's influence wanes, other actors are filling the void. Saudi Arabia has intensified its engagement with Somalia, focusing on technology and infrastructure. A 2025 agreement between Somalia's National Communications Authority and Saudi Arabia's Communications, Space and Technology Commission highlights a shift toward AI and space technology collaboration. Additionally, Saudi Vision 2030-driven investments in transportation and urban development-such as road networks and energy projects-could bolster Somalia's economic resilience. However, Saudi involvement also risks entangling Somalia in Gulf rivalries, particularly with Iran and Qatar, which have competing regional interests.

Turkey has emerged as a strategic partner, leveraging its construction expertise in East Africa. Turkish firms are developing high-speed rail lines in Tanzania and have committed $10 billion in infrastructure projects across Sudan. In Somalia, Ankara's 2026 offshore oil and gas drilling plans signal a shift from humanitarian aid to strategic economic partnerships. Yet, Turkey's growing influence could heighten tensions with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, whose investments are often framed as counterbalancing Iranian and Turkish regional ambitions.

China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) also presents opportunities. While specific projects in Somalia remain undefined, BRI-aligned investments in East Africa-such as the Standard Gauge Railway expansions and renewable energy projects-suggest a potential for Chinese-funded infrastructure in Somalia. However, China's involvement carries risks, including debt dependency and environmental concerns, which could strain Somalia's fragile governance structures.

Geopolitical Realignments and Regional Stability

The UAE-Somalia split underscores a broader realignment in East Africa's geopolitical dynamics. Gulf states and Turkey are competing to secure strategic footholds, often through infrastructure investments tied to security partnerships. For example, the UAE's support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan and its alignment with Israel's recognition of Somaliland have heightened tensions with Saudi Arabia, which views such actions as threats to regional unity. These rivalries risk transforming East Africa into a proxy battleground, with local governments caught between competing external interests.

At the same time, the Horn of Africa's strategic location-bordering the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea-ensures that infrastructure investments will remain a focal point for global powers. As Gulf states, Turkey, and China vie for influence, the region's stability will depend on its ability to balance external partnerships with domestic governance reforms.

Conclusion

Somalia's break with the UAE has created both challenges and opportunities for East Africa. While the loss of UAE investments in infrastructure and security raises immediate risks, the emergence of alternative actors like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China offers new pathways for development. However, these partnerships must be navigated carefully to avoid deepening regional rivalries or exacerbating Somalia's political fragility. For investors, the key lies in aligning projects with long-term stability goals, ensuring that infrastructure and security investments contribute to-not undermine-Somalia's sovereignty and regional cohesion.