SOLUSDT Market Overview

• Price action shows a sharp sell-off after a morning rally, with a 15-minute low near $212.85.
• Momentum indicators indicate overbought conditions early morning, followed by oversold conditions in the afternoon.
• Bollinger Bands show volatility expansion, with price dropping below the lower band at the 24-hour close.
• Volume surged to over 429k near 15:45 ET, coinciding with the largest price drop in the dataset.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the morning range, signaling potential short-term reversal.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09, Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) opened at $219.51, reached a high of $224.46, and closed at $210.70 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-10. The pair saw a 24-hour low of $209.01 and traded on a volume of 1,910,000.25 with a turnover of $417,098,653.49.

The structure of the 15-minute candles reveals a strong bullish push early in the morning, with a high of $224.46 followed by a sharp bearish reversal. Key resistance levels were seen near $222.0 and $224.46, while support was confirmed at $212.85 and $210.00. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the top of the morning rally, suggesting a potential reversal. Additionally, a doji formed near $219.49 during consolidation, indicating indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

Using 20/50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, the price spent much of the morning above both, but dipped below them in the afternoon as the sell-off accelerated. On the daily chart, the 50-period line is above the 100- and 200-period lines, indicating a long-term bullish bias despite the recent volatility.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bullish crossover in the early morning but quickly turned bearish as volume surged. RSI moved into overbought territory during the morning rally but dropped sharply to oversold levels after 14:30 ET, suggesting a possible bounce from $210.00. However, the sharp divergence between price and RSI in the afternoon raises questions about the sustainability of the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was notably high, especially from 13:45 to 15:30 ET, with Bollinger Bands expanding. Price dropped below the lower band at the 24-hour close, indicating a potential exhaustion of the bearish move. However, this may also suggest a consolidation phase is ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near $212.85, coinciding with a large notional turnover of $102.18 million. This suggests a significant liquidation event or institutional selling. Price and turnover moved in the same direction in the morning but diverged in the afternoon, with turnover declining while price continued to fall — a warning sign of potential bear trap or exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the morning swing high of $224.46 and the afternoon low of $212.85, key levels are at 38.2% (~$221.49), 50% (~$218.66), and 61.8% (~$215.82). The price closed near 61.8% on the 15-minute chart and is currently finding support at the daily 61.8% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests entering long positions on bullish divergences between RSI and price during early overbought conditions and exiting on bearish divergences during afternoon overbought levels. Given the recent divergence in RSI and price during the late morning and afternoon, this strategy could have captured a portion of the morning rally while avoiding the sharp sell-off. A stop-loss would be placed below the daily 61.8% retracement level to manage downside risk. The recent 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern and RSI oversold reading may also provide a low-risk entry for a potential bounce from the lower Bollinger Band.