SOLUSDT Market Overview

• Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) rose to $234.80 before consolidating in a narrow range, indicating short-term indecision.
• Key resistance at $233.50 and support at $229.00 were tested multiple times, with mixed follow-through.
• On-balance volume and price action show divergence in the final 4 hours, hinting at potential reversal.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions but lack confirmation from bullish volume spikes.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with Bollinger Bands widening before narrowing again toward close.

The Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) pair opened at $225.53 on October 2, 2025, surged to a high of $234.80 during the session, and closed at $230.79 at 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume for the 24-hour window reached approximately 1,461,584.39 SOL, with a notional turnover of $337,167,411. The price action suggests a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with no clear resolution in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price carved out a key swing high at $234.80 near the end of the session, with a subsequent pullback forming a bearish “engulfing” pattern at the close. This suggests potential exhaustion in the immediate uptrend. A strong support level appeared at $229.00, where the price bounced twice and showed consolidation. A doji formed near $230.84 in the final hour, indicating indecision and a potential turning point.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum on the 15-minute chart showed price above both the 20-period (around $229.80) and 50-period (around $230.15) moving averages. However, the daily chart revealed price below the 200-period (around $232.35), hinting at longer-term bearish bias. The 50-period daily MA at $230.80 aligns with the 230.84 doji and could act as a pivot for near-term direction.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory during the mid-session rally, but the signal line failed to confirm a strong bullish crossover. RSI hit 72–74 in the final hours of the uptrend, signaling overbought conditions without a sharp pullback. This suggests traders may be waiting for a clearer catalyst to trigger a directional move, with the RSI hovering near a neutral zone for the past 30 minutes.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was relatively high during the peak of the rally, with the Bollinger Bands widening to 5.5% at their peak. By the final hour, bands had narrowed to 2.8%, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. Price spent the last 2 hours within the bands, with the close near the mid-band, indicating neutral momentum for the time being.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 111,259.91 SOL at $228.13 and then surged again to 104,088.75 SOL at $231.70, both times preceding price consolidation. Notional turnover peaked at $26.4M in the 1530–1545 ET time window, but price failed to follow through beyond the $234.80 high. This divergence suggests potential bearish bias in the near term if price breaks below $230.00.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing high at $234.80 and swing low at $227.68 shows key retracement levels at 38.2% ($231.70), 50% ($231.24), and 61.8% ($230.79). The recent close of $230.79 aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, indicating a potential support zone. A breakdown below $230.00 could bring the 50% level into play as a retest target.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current structure and Fibonacci alignment, a backtest hypothesis could focus on a breakout strategy targeting the 61.8% level as a potential entry trigger. A long position could be initiated on a close above $230.79 with a stop-loss placed below $229.00. The target would be the 38.2% retracement at $231.70, with a maximum holding period of 4 hours or until the first test of $234.80. This approach leverages both volume confirmation and key Fibonacci levels observed in the recent price action.