SOLJPY Market Overview: Strong Rally and Increasing Volatility on 2025-10-25

• SOLJPY saw a strong 24-hour rally, closing near a new high after a sustained bullish trend.
• Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD showed positive divergence, suggesting strong buying interest.
• Volatility increased significantly as Bollinger Bands widened, reflecting heightened trader activity.
• A key resistance level appeared near 29700, where price tested and bounced back multiple times.
• Notional turnover rose by nearly 40% in the last 6 hours, indicating growing institutional or retail participation.

Price Action and Momentum

Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) opened at 28994 and closed at 29699 by 12:00 ET on 2025-10-25, with an intraday high of 29846 and a low of 28909. The 24-hour volume was 3695.886 with a notional turnover of $106,482,696. The pair has shown consistent upward momentum, especially after 19:00 ET the previous day, when a strong bullish trend accelerated.

MACD and RSI both indicated growing bullish momentum, with RSI climbing into overbought territory and MACD showing a narrowing histogram before a final positive crossover. These signals support a potential continuation of the bullish trend, though caution is warranted near key resistance levels.

Volatility and Structure

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the past 12 hours, with the price frequently testing the upper band. This expansion reflects increased volatility and trader confidence in the bullish narrative. Notably, a bearish pinocchio line formed during the early morning hours (04:45–05:15 ET), which failed to reverse the trend, confirming the strength of the upward move.

Key resistance appears at 29700 and 29850, while support levels form around 29500 and 29360. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed on the 15-minute chart at 05:15–05:30 ET, but it failed to reverse the trend, reinforcing the bullish bias.

Volume and Turnover

Volume distribution showed a clear imbalance, with a significant portion of buying interest concentrated in the last 8 hours. Notional turnover increased sharply after 19:30 ET the previous day and again after 05:00 ET, suggesting both algorithmic and discretionary traders are participating. No clear divergence between price and volume was observed, indicating strong alignment between trend and flow.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the recent 15-minute swing (28909–29846) show 61.8% at 29535 and 38.2% at 29689. Price currently rests above both, indicating strong continuation potential. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of the broader trend (28500–29850) would place key support near 29000, a level not yet tested in this rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish pattern confirmed by high-volume action, we can model a potential backtesting strategy that captures the essence of the recent move. The 15-minute chart has displayed a series of bullish engulfing and harami patterns, with confirmation through volume spikes and RSI divergence. A backtest could simulate entries on confirmed bullish engulfing patterns, using a 1.5% stop-loss below the pattern's low and a take-profit at the Fibonacci 161.8% level (30350) or nearest key resistance.

This approach aligns well with the current setup, and with historical data available for this time frame and pattern, it is feasible to run a performance test for accuracy, win rate, and risk-reward ratio. The key to success in such a strategy lies in the timing of the pattern’s confirmation and proper risk management.