SOLJPY Crashes Past 13,400 With Surging Volume — Is a Bounce Coming?

Summary
• Price declined from 13,733 to 13,328, breaking below key support of 13,400.
• Volume surged during the decline, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI and MACD signal oversold conditions, suggesting potential short-term reversal.

The Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) pair opened at 13,647 on 2026-02-06 12:00 ET, hit a high of 14,133, a low of 13,255, and closed at 13,328 on 2026-02-07 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume was 13,411.777 SOL with a notional turnover of approximately ¥183,654,049.

Structure and Candlestick Patterns

The price action displayed a strong bearish breakdown below 13,400, marked by a large engulfing bearish candle at 2026-02-07 07:15 ET (13,622 open to 13,369 close). A long lower shadow emerged near 13,255, indicating rejection at that level. A possible triple bottom formation is visible near 13,350–13,370, with 13,431 acting as an immediate resistance.

Moving Averages and Trend

On the 5-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs have been bearishly aligned for much of the session, reinforcing the downward move. For daily timeframes, the 50-period SMA is near 13,500 and acts as a medium-term resistance. The price is now below the 100- and 200-period daily SMAs, signaling a stronger bearish bias.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI reached an oversold reading of ~28 during the 7:30–8:00 ET window, suggesting potential for a bounce. The MACD crossed below the signal line during the selloff and remains in negative territory, indicating bearish momentum. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Band width, has expanded as the price dropped, with the current close sitting near the lower band, amplifying the oversold signal.

Volume and Turnover

Volume and turnover spiked dramatically between 07:15 and 08:15 ET as the price collapsed from 13,622 to 13,328. The high volume confirmed the breakdown rather than showing divergence. However, volume has since cooled, suggesting exhaustion in the downward move and the need for confirmation of a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Fibonacci retracements from the 14,133 high to the 13,255 low show 13,366 as the 23.6% retracement and 13,434 as the 38.2% retracement. These levels could offer short-term support or resistance depending on whether the price bounces or resumes the downtrend. On the 5-minute chart, the 13,400–13,450 range appears as a critical pivot zone for near-term direction.

The market appears to have found a short-term floor near 13,255–13,350, and a retest of the 13,400–13,430 zone could follow. While an oversold RSI hints at a possible bounce, caution is warranted until a convincing close above 13,430 occurs. Investors should watch for a breakdown below 13,250 as the next key risk level.