Solid Power: Here's What To Do Now If You Missed Selling Earlier

Solid Power (SLDP) has long been a high-risk, high-reward play in the nascent solid-state battery sector, but its recent volatility—from a January 2025 peak of $2.20 to a mid-April dip to $1.10—has left many investors questioning their next move. For those who held through the declines, the question now is: Should you hold, sell, or even buy more? Let’s dissect the data and developments to formulate a strategy.

The Stock’s Volatile Journey (Dec 2024–Apr 2025)

First, let’s ground the discussion in the numbers. Solid Power’s stock has been a rollercoaster, driven by technical milestones and macroeconomic headwinds.

• January Surge: The stock spiked to $2.20–2.33 on Jan 6, 2025, fueled by optimism around its partnership with BMW and a U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) grant.
• February Plunge: By Feb 27, 2025, it fell to $1.22 as EV demand concerns and delays in partner timelines weighed on sentiment.
• April Stabilization: As of April 17, it settled at $1.10, reflecting a mix of cautious optimism and lingering skepticism about commercialization timelines.

Despite this volatility, the company’s year-to-date (YTD) return of 41.8% (vs. the S&P 500’s 10.2%) underscores its long-term potential. However, its 5-year return of 89% versus the broader market’s 83.77% shows that Solid Power’s growth isn’t without risk.

Key Catalysts to Monitor

1. Technological Milestones

Solid Power’s collaboration with BMW remains its most critical asset. The automaker plans to showcase a demo vehicle with Solid Power’s solid-state batteries by 2025—a B Sample phase milestone. These cells, featuring sulfide-based electrolytes, aim to address scalability and reliability. Success here could validate the technology’s readiness for mass production, a key step toward commercialization.

2. Government and Industry Backing

The $50M DoE grant (pending final negotiations) is a lifeline for Solid Power’s efforts to scale continuous production of solid electrolytes. This funding, combined with partnerships with Ford and SK On, positions the company as a leader in the $50B solid-state battery market expected by 2030.

3. Earnings and Liquidity

While Solid Power’s Q1 2025 earnings (due May 6) will provide clarity on cash burn and R&D progress, its $122M cash balance as of Q3 2024 suggests it can weather short-term headwinds. However, its negative EPS trajectory (projected at -$0.14 for Q1) underscores the need for patience.

The Challenges Ahead

1. EV Demand Volatility

Slowing EV adoption and competition from improved lithium-ion batteries have clouded the near-term outlook. Solid Power’s success hinges on outperforming these alternatives, which remains unproven at scale.

2. Commercialization Timeline

BMW’s leadership has been clear: solid-state batteries are not yet cost-effective for mass production, with timelines stretching to the 2030s. Solid Power’s role in this timeline is critical, but delays could strain investor confidence.

3. High-Risk Profile

The stock’s beta (a measure of volatility relative to the market) is 1.8, meaning it swings 80% more than the broader market. For risk-averse investors, this is a non-starter.

What to Do Now

Hold for Long-Term Investors

If you believe in Solid Power’s decade-long potential, holding makes sense. The DoE grant, partnerships, and sulfide electrolyte advantages position it to dominate a $50B market. However, investors must accept that returns could be years away, and interim dips are likely.

Buy for Strategic Exposure

The April dip to $1.10 creates a lower-risk entry point for those willing to bet on the B Sample phase success and the May earnings report. A $1.50–$2 target by late 2025 (if milestones are met) could justify a position.

Sell for Risk-Averse Holders

If you prioritize capital preservation, exiting now at $1.10—below the January peak—might be prudent. Solid Power’s timeline uncertainty and reliance on external partnerships amplify execution risk.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balance of Risk and Reward

Solid Power is a high-stakes bet on the future of EV batteries. Its partnerships, technological advancements, and government support are undeniable positives, but they’re offset by execution risks and a crowded market. Investors must weigh two critical questions:

1. Can Solid Power deliver scalable production by 2030?

2. The $50M DoE grant and B Sample progress are early indicators, but cost reductions and partner validation are non-negotiable.

3. Is the stock price aligned with its potential?

4. At $1.10, it’s priced for near-term skepticism but offers upside if 2025 milestones are met.

The data suggests Solid Power’s long-term narrative is intact, but patience is required. For those willing to endure volatility, the stock could be a generational play. For others, it’s a gamble best avoided. The path forward hinges on May’s earnings report and BMW’s 2025 demo—a test that could make or break investor confidence.