Soleno Therapeutics Plunges 14.72%—What's Brewing in the Lab?

Summary
• Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO) slumps to $59.88, a 14.72% drop from its $70.21 close
• Intraday range of $50.63–$70.57 highlights extreme volatility
• Options chain sees 3500 contracts traded on the 60-strike put expiring 9/19
• With 6.8M shares traded and 14.87% turnover rate, liquidity is surging as the stock tests its 52-week low of $41.50. This sharp reversal demands scrutiny of technical triggers and options positioning.

Technical Divergence Sparks Sell-Off
The 14.72% intraday collapse aligns with a breakdown below the 200-day moving average ($64.32) and key support at $61.1979 (lower Bollinger Band). While the 30-day RSI (58.11) suggests moderate momentum, the MACD (-2.75) crossing below its signal line (-3.42) confirms bearish momentum. The 85.52% implied volatility on the 60-strike put (SLNO20250919P60) reflects extreme short-term fear, with 3500 contracts traded—nearly 10x the next most active put. This technical divergence, combined with the stock trading at 44% of its 52-week high ($90.32), signals a liquidity-driven selloff rather than fundamental deterioration.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility
• 200-day MA: $64.32 (below current price)
• RSI: 58.11 (neutral)
• Bollinger Bands: $61.1979 (lower) to $79.9611 (upper)
• MACD: -2.75 (bearish crossover)
• Key support/resistance: $44.38–$45.30 (200D) / $66.51–$66.91 (30D)

Two options stand out for bearish exposure:

• SLNO20250919P60 (Put): 3500 contracts traded, 85.52% IV, 88.60% price change, delta -0.46, theta -0.048, gamma 0.045, turnover $317,260
• SLNO20251017P65 (Put): 200 contracts traded, 70.13% IV, 350.55% price change, delta -0.58, theta -0.023, gamma 0.028, turnover $1,640

The 60-strike put offers high liquidity and a 2166.67% price surge, ideal for capturing the 5% downside scenario (projected price $56.88). The 65-strike put, with a -0.58 delta and 70.13% IV, provides amplified exposure as the stock approaches its 52-week low. For conservative traders, the 60-strike put's $317,260 turnover ensures easy entry/exit. Aggressive bears may consider the 65-strike put for leveraged downside capture, though its lower liquidity demands caution. If $50.63 breaks, SLNO20250919P60 offers short-side potential.

Backtest Soleno Therapeutics Stock Performance
Here are the results of your requested analysis. In short, we examined every trading day from 2022-01-01 through 2025-09-10 in which SLNO’s intraday draw-down from the day’s high to the day’s low reached –15 % or worse (53 valid events). A 30-day event study shows:• One-day bounce is modest and statistically insignificant. • By day 3 the average cumulative return after the plunge turns strongly positive (+13.6 %), and the positivity persists across the 30-day window (+26 % by day 30). • Win-rate stabilises around 50 %–58 %, meaning gains are driven by the magnitude of winners, not frequency. (Parameters automatically chosen: – Intraday plunge defined by (Low – High)/High ≤ –0.15 using daily OHLC data; – Close prices used for return calculation; – Standard 30-day post-event horizon applied by the engine.)You can explore the full distribution, cumulative-return curve and statistical tables in the interactive panel below.Feel free to review the interactive charts and tables; let me know if you’d like deeper cuts (e.g., alternative holding windows, risk-adjusted metrics, or different plunge thresholds).

Act Now: Target $50.63 Support or Exit on AMGN's Lead
The breakdown below $61.1979 (lower Bollinger Band) and 200-day MA ($64.32) signals a critical juncture. With 6.8M shares traded and 14.87% turnover, liquidity is surging as the stock approaches its 52-week low. The 60-strike put's 85.52% IV and 3500 contracts traded indicate institutional bearishness. While Amgen (AMGN) only fell 0.525%, Soleno's divergence suggests sector-specific pressure. Immediate action: target $50.63 support or consider the 60-strike put for a 5% downside scenario. Watch for $50.63 breakdown or regulatory reaction.