First Solar (FSLR) Soars 6.4% in Volatile Session—What’s Fueling the Surge?

Summary
• First Solar’s stock jumps 6.4% in post-market trading after raising 2025 sales guidance.
• Earnings beat Q2 estimates by 18.7%, driven by higher-than-expected gross profit.
• Options activity surges, with 48 million shares traded—4.7% of float—hinting at speculative fervor.

First Solar’s dramatic 6.4% intraday rally has sent shockwaves through the solar sector. Trading at $185.98, the stock has surged from a morning low of $179.06 to a high of $189.63, fueled by a combination of bullish earnings surprises and strategic guidance updates. The move has outpaced a flat-to-negative broader market and raised questions about whether this momentum is sustainable.

Earnings Beat and Revised Guidance Ignite Optimism
First Solar’s 6.4% surge is directly tied to its Q2 2025 earnings report and updated 2025 guidance. The company reported $3.18 per share in earnings, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 18.7%, despite a 2.2% year-over-year decline in EPS. Gross profit of $499.9 million rose 0.2% year-over-year, while net sales hit $1.1 billion—6.6% above expectations. The revised 2025 sales forecast of $4.90-$5.70 billion, coupled with a narrower EPS range of $13.50-$16.50, signals confidence in near-term margins. Analysts highlight the strategic partnership with UbiQD to enhance solar panel efficiency as a catalyst, reinforcing investor conviction.

Solar Sector Splits as Canadian Solar Drags on 1.08% Drop
While First Solar’s rally is driven by earnings strength, the broader solar sector is mixed. Canadian Solar (CSIQ), the sector’s top performer, is down 1.08% despite a 17.3% sales growth forecast for Q2. The divergence highlights First Solar’s unique positioning: its domestic manufacturing focus and UbiQD collaboration stand out in a sector grappling with U.S. import investigations and falling module prices. Enphase Energy’s 11.3% earnings beat also failed to translate into a sector-wide rally, underscoring First Solar’s distinct momentum.

Options Playbook: Leverage Gamma and Theta with FSLR20250808C190 and FSLR20250808C185
• Technical Indicators:
- 200-day MA: $166.31 (below current price)
- RSI: 62.98 (neutral to overbought)
- MACD: 4.95 (bullish) vs. Signal Line: 5.08 (bearish)
- Bollinger Bands: $159.14 (lower) to $190.20 (upper)

Trading Setup: FSLR’s price is trading near the upper Bollinger Band ($190.20), with RSI approaching overbought territory. The 200-day MA is a key support at $166.31. A breakout above $190.20 could trigger a test of the 52W high ($262.72). Given the 4.7% turnover rate and rising implied volatility (IV), bullish options with gamma exposure are ideal.

Top Options:
• FSLR20250808C190
- Type: Call
- Strike: $190
- Expiration: 2025-08-08
- IV: 46.19% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 52.47% (high)
- Delta: 0.4046 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.7007 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0304 (high sensitivity to price)
- Turnover: $274,215 (liquid)
- Why it stands out: This call offers high leverage and gamma, ideal for a continued rally above $190. If FSLR hits $195, the payoff would be $5 (max(0, 195 - 190)).

• FSLR20250808C185
- Type: Call
- Strike: $185
- Expiration: 2025-08-08
- IV: 45.10% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 32.68% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5598 (moderate)
- Theta: -0.8451 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0317 (high sensitivity to price)
- Turnover: $325,000 (highly liquid)
- Why it stands out: This call provides a balance of leverage and liquidity. A 5% move to $195 would yield a $10 payoff (max(0, 195 - 185)).

Trading Opinion: Aggressive bulls should target FSLR20250808C190 for a breakout above $190.20, while conservative traders may use FSLR20250808C185 for a safer, lower-delta play.

Backtest First Solar Stock Performance
The backtest of FSLR's performance after a 6% intraday surge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 53.68%, the 10-Day win rate is 50.41%, and the 30-Day win rate is 59.41%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 8.45%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for further price appreciation following the initial surge.

First Solar’s Rally: A High-Velocity Trade with Solar Sector Divergence
First Solar’s 6.4% surge is underpinned by earnings strength and revised guidance, but sustainability hinges on holding above $179.06 (intraday low) and $166.31 (200-day MA). The RSI approaching overbought levels and MACD histogram turning negative suggest caution, but the Bollinger Band breakout offers short-term momentum. Investors should monitor the 52W high ($262.72) as a long-term target and watch Canadian Solar’s 1.08% decline for sector sentiment. For now, FSLR20250808C190 and FSLR20250808C185 provide actionable leverage—execute before the 8 August expiration.