First Solar Stages 3.04% Rebound Amid Volatility Hits 145th in 72.25% Volume Surge to 780M

Market Snapshot

First Solar (FSLR) closed on January 15, 2026, with a 3.04% increase in its stock price, marking a positive reversal from recent volatility. Trading volume surged by 72.25% to $0.78 billion, securing the stock at the 145th position in daily trading activity. This rebound follows a sharp 10.29% decline on January 7, 2026, triggered by a Jefferies downgrade and broader concerns over margin compression and reduced deployment opportunities. Despite the recent gains, the stock remains within a 52-week range of $116.56 to $285.99, reflecting ongoing uncertainty amid mixed earnings performance and regulatory scrutiny.

Key Drivers

The recent stock price fluctuation for First Solar is primarily attributed to a combination of regulatory investigations, analyst revisions, and evolving market conditions. On January 15, Pomerantz LLP announced an investigation into potential securities fraud by First Solar and its executives, raising concerns among investors. This follows a January 7 downgrade by Jefferies, which cited the company’s reduced guidance, significant de-bookings, and margin compression in 2025. The downgrade prompted a 10.29% drop in the stock price, but subsequent institutional activity and revised analyst ratings have contributed to a partial recovery.

First Solar’s earnings history further complicates the narrative. In Q2 2025, the company reported $1.1 billion in net sales and $3.18 earnings per share (EPS), surpassing forecasts and highlighting improved gross margins of 46%. However, Q3 2025 results revealed a $0.08 miss on EPS expectations, despite a 79.7% year-over-year revenue increase. Analysts have responded with a mix of optimism and caution, with Deutsche Bank and Citigroup raising price targets to $300, while Jefferies downgraded to “Hold.” The firm’s full-year 2025 guidance of $13.50–$16.50 EPS and $4.9–$5.7 billion in revenue underscores its strategic focus on utility-scale solar projects and U.S. manufacturing expansion.

Institutional investor activity has also influenced the stock’s trajectory. Robeco Schweiz AG reduced its stake by 3.1% in Q3 2025, while State Street Corp increased holdings to $881.68 million. Notably, insiders sold over 48,912 shares in the 90 days preceding January 15, valued at $12.97 million. These actions reflect divergent views on the company’s short-term prospects, with some investors capitalizing on volatility while others hedge against regulatory risks. Additionally, First Solar’s 0.57% ownership by Robeco and 0.08% by New York State Teachers Retirement System highlight the stock’s presence in institutional portfolios, albeit at reduced levels.

Despite these challenges, the broader solar industry and analyst sentiment provide a counterbalance. First Solar’s forward P/E ratio of 10.21, significantly lower than the industry average of 21.21, suggests undervaluation relative to peers. Analysts at Seaport Global and Wells Fargo have upgraded the stock to “Buy” or “Overweight,” citing long-term demand from AI and cryptocurrency sectors, which require substantial electricity. The company’s Section 45X tax credit projections ($390–$425 million in Q3 2025) and plans for U.S.-based finishing lines further reinforce its position in the renewable energy transition. However, the Pomerantz investigation and Jefferies’ bearish outlook underscore lingering risks, particularly if margin pressures or regulatory actions intensify.

The interplay of these factors—regulatory uncertainty, mixed earnings, institutional shifts, and sector-specific tailwinds—has created a volatile environment for First Solar. While the 3.04% gain on January 15 indicates investor confidence in the company’s resilience, the stock’s path forward remains contingent on resolving the securities investigation, maintaining earnings momentum, and navigating the competitive solar landscape. With a consensus price target of $273.37 and a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), the market appears cautiously optimistic, but key risks persist.