First Solar Shares Drop 5.34% as Bearish Candlestick with Long Lower Shadow Points to Key Support at $262 $255.89

Candlestick Theory
First Solar (FSLR) closed at $269.39, down 5.34%, forming a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow and a high-to-low range of $21.38. The pattern suggests strong selling pressure, with key support levels likely at $262 (the low of the recent session) and $255.89 (a prior close). Resistance is temporarily negated by the breakdown, but a retest of the $283.37 high could signal a potential reversal if buyers re-enter.
Moving Average Theory
Short-term (50-day) and intermediate (100-day) moving averages are likely below the 200-day line, indicating a bearish bias. The 200-day MA, a critical long-term trendline, may act as a dynamic support zone near $250–$255. A close below this level could accelerate the downtrend, while a rebound above the 50-day MA ($265–$270 range) might indicate short-term stabilization.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram is likely negative and expanding, confirming bearish momentum, while the KDJ oscillator shows oversold conditions (K < D < 30), suggesting potential exhaustion in the sell-off. However, the lack of a bullish crossover in MACD or a KDJ rebound above 30 implies caution—trend reversals are not yet confirmed. Divergence between price and KDJ could hint at a near-term bottom if the oscillator stabilizes.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded, with the recent close near the lower Bollinger Band ($262–$265 range). A break below this band may signal increased bearish conviction, but a retest could trigger a bounce toward the mid-band ($275–$280). Band contraction periods in late November hint at a potential breakout, but current positioning favors continued selling pressure.
Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume spiked to 3.8 million shares on the recent decline, validating the move lower. However, volume has not shown a consistent decline post-break, suggesting sustained bearish conviction. A drop in volume during a potential rebound would weaken its credibility, while a surge could confirm renewed selling.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI is likely in oversold territory (<30), signaling potential for a short-term bounce. However, RSI readings below 30 in a strong downtrend often act as a false signal, with price resuming the decline. A sustained close above $275 (RSI > 40) would be required to validate a reversal, but current momentum favors further testing of support.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key Fibonacci levels from the December 22 high ($285.99) to the December 15 low ($249.76) include 38.2% at $268 and 61.8% at $257. The recent close near $269.39 aligns with the 38.2% retracement, suggesting a potential consolidation zone. A breakdown below $257 could target the 78.6% level at $249.76, with confluence at the 200-day MA.
Confluence and Divergences
Confluence exists at the $262 support level, where Fibonacci, Bollinger Bands, and volume patterns align. Divergences between RSI (oversold) and price suggest a possible near-term rebound, but MACD and KDJ indicators remain bearish, indicating caution. A sustained close above $275 would resolve this divergence and signal a shift in sentiment.