First Solar Rises 1.87% on Strong YTD Gains of 43.5% Despite 199th Volume Rank

Market Snapshot

On November 10, 2025, First Solar (FSLR) closed with a 1.87% price increase, outperforming the broader market. The stock traded with a daily volume of $0.59 billion, ranking 199th among all listed U.S. equities by turnover. Despite its modest volume position, the company’s share price has gained 18.5% over the past month and 43.5% year-to-date, reflecting sustained investor enthusiasm. This performance contrasts with recent volatility in the clean energy sector, as First Solar navigates shifting demand and trade policy dynamics.

Key Drivers

First Solar’s recent share price surge has been driven by a combination of analyst upgrades, strategic contract renegotiations, and mixed earnings results. On October 31, Jefferies raised its price target for FSLR to $269, maintaining a “Buy” rating despite BP’s cancellation of 6.6 gigawatts of solar panel contracts. The firm argued that these cancellations could prove beneficial if First Solar secures new deals at higher pricing—currently around $0.36 per watt—supported by U.S. trade policies favoring domestic manufacturing. This pivot to premium contracts has been framed as a long-term strength, with Jefferies forecasting stronger pricing power starting in 2028, even as near-term volume projections for 2026 and 2027 are reduced.

The company’s third-quarter 2025 results, released on October 30, highlighted both progress and challenges. Revenue of $1.59 billion exceeded analyst expectations, driven by a record 5.3 gigawatt shipment. However, earnings per share (EPS) of $4.24 fell slightly short of the projected $4.27, primarily due to temporary underutilization costs that pressured margins. While the revenue beat underscored First Solar’s operational scalability, the EPS miss signaled ongoing cost management challenges. The firm’s strong balance sheet and manageable debt levels, however, have bolstered investor confidence in its ability to absorb short-term headwinds.

Valuation debates have further fueled market momentum. At a closing price of $267.64, First Solar’s shares trade at a 3% premium to the most widely followed analyst fair value of $259.11, suggesting modest overvaluation in the short term. However, a discounted cash flow (DCF) model from Simply Wall St suggests a steeper 44% discount to intrinsic value, implying potential undervaluation if long-term cash flow assumptions hold. This divergence reflects divergent views on the company’s growth trajectory: while some analysts caution against trade policy risks and government incentive reductions, others emphasize First Solar’s leadership in U.S. thin-film solar manufacturing and its alignment with onshoring trends.

Key risks remain centered on macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainties. Escalating trade policy debates and potential cuts to clean energy subsidies could dampen demand forecasts, particularly for large-scale projects. Additionally, BP’s contract cancellations highlight the vulnerability of First Solar’s revenue streams to client-specific disruptions. Yet, the firm’s focus on premium pricing and domestic production positions it to benefit from U.S. tariffs and the broader shift toward local manufacturing. Investors must weigh these factors against the company’s historical performance, including a 38% total shareholder return over the past year and 78% over three years, which underscores its resilience in volatile markets.

In summary, First Solar’s stock has been propelled by a mix of strategic flexibility, operational execution, and valuation debates. While near-term challenges persist, the company’s ability to reprice contracts and leverage favorable policy environments suggests a continuation of its long-term growth narrative, albeit with caution required for macroeconomic headwinds.