First Solar Plunges 6.99% to $192 Amid Three-Day 12.46% Selloff

First Solar (FSLR) declined 6.99% to close at $192 on August 21, 2025, marking its third consecutive daily loss and bringing the cumulative three-day decline to 12.46%. This sell-off occurred on elevated volume of 5.22 million shares, exceeding the 30-day average, signaling strong bearish conviction. The following technical analysis evaluates this move within the context of historical price action.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a pronounced bearish sequence. The August 18th 9.69% rally formed a large bullish candle, but this was immediately engulfed by three consecutive bearish candles with lower highs and lower lows. The August 21st session printed a long red candle closing near its low ($192), decisively breaching the psychological $200 support and the August 15th swing low of $199.95. This breakdown establishes $200–$205 as immediate resistance. Support emerges at the August 14th low of $176.47, with secondary support at the July 10th trough of $164.60. The absence of reversal patterns like hammers or piercing lines suggests ongoing bearish dominance.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (~$180), 100-day MA (~$170), and 200-day MA (~$160) maintain a bullish sequence (50 > 100 > 200). However, the recent close at $192 breached the 50-day MA for the first time since July 14th, suggesting short-term trend deterioration. The 50-day MA now becomes critical support. Failure to hold this level could trigger a test of the 100-day MA. The convergence between the 50-day and 100-day MAs reflects narrowing momentum, but the primary uptrend remains intact unless the 200-day MA is challenged.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) generated a bearish crossover on August 19th and has since accelerated downward, with the histogram expanding negatively. Concurrently, the KDJ oscillator (9,3,3) shows the %K line plunging to 10 and %D to 18, deep in oversold territory. While both indicators confirm strong bearish momentum, the KDJ’s extremity warns of potential exhaustion. A bullish MACD crossover or KDJ hooking upward would be needed to signal reversal potential.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20-day, 2σ) contracted sharply ahead of the August 18th breakout, foreshadowing volatility expansion. Price has since collapsed to the lower band ($190), testing this support. Band width remains elevated, indicating ongoing volatility. A sustained break below the lower band would signal continuation of the bearish impulse, while a rebound toward the middle band ($205) may offer resistance. The squeeze resolution decidedly favored the downside.
Volume-Price Relationship
The August 15th and 18th rallies saw exceptionally high volume (10.9M and 9.5M shares), but subsequent declines occurred on incrementally higher volume (4.6M, 3.0M, and 5.2M shares). This divergence—rising volume on down days—confirms distribution. The August 21st sell-off volume at 5.2M shares exceeded the 30-day average, lending credibility to the breakdown. Volume profiles suggest sellers remain in control, with no notable accumulation patterns at current levels.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI plummeted to 26, entering oversold territory for the first time since June 17th. While this may foreshadow a technical bounce, RSI can remain oversold during strong downtrends. Notably, RSI diverged negatively in early August, making lower highs while prices made higher highs—a warning signal now validated. Any rebound attempt would need RSI to break above 40 to suggest sustainable recovery.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the rally from the July 10th low of $164.60 to the August 18th peak of $221.50, key levels emerge. The 38.2% retracement at $197.80 was violated on August 21st, with price closing near the 50% level ($193.05). The next critical support is the 61.8% retracement at $188.30. A decisive break below 61.8% could extend losses toward the 78.6% level ($182). Confluence exists at $188–$190, combining Fibonacci and the lower Bollinger Band.
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence of bearish signals is significant: breakdowns below the 50-day MA, 38.2% Fibonacci, and psychological $200 support; bearish MACD crossover; volume-confirmed distribution; and oversold but non-diverging KDJ. The lone counter-signal is the deeply oversold RSI, which carries low reliability amid strong trends. No bullish divergences are yet evident between price and momentum oscillators. Collectively, this technical mosaic suggests dominant bearish control, with $180–$182 (50-day MA + 78.6% Fibonacci) as critical support. A rebound would require reconquering $200 and the 50-day MA to invalidate the immediate downtrend.