Why First Solar (FSLR) Is a Must-Buy Amid U.S. Solar Tax Credit Revival

The U.S. solar industry is on the cusp of a historic boom, fueled by the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and its $10+ billion tax credit framework. Among the beneficiaries, First Solar (FSLR) stands out as a uniquely positioned leader, leveraging vertical integration, domestic manufacturing dominance, and policy tailwinds to carve out a multi-year growth trajectory. Here’s why investors should act now before this story fully unfolds.

The $10B+ Tax Credit Catalyst: First Solar’s Direct Line to Profits

The IRA’s Section 45X Production Tax Credit and 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) form the backbone of the U.S. solar boom. For First Solar, these incentives are a game-changer:

• $10 billion+ in projected tax credits through 2031 could add $92 per share to FSLR’s valuation, according to Wolfe Research.
• The ITC’s domestic content requirements, which mandate U.S.-sourced materials, favor First Solar’s vertically integrated model. Unlike peers reliant on Chinese imports, FSLR’s CadTel semiconductor technology and Louisiana manufacturing hub ensure compliance.

The recent House Ways and Means proposal to phase out tax credits faster post-2029 might worry some, but FSLR’s strong balance sheet allows it to delay monetization of credits, avoiding short-term pressure. Analysts at Wolfe call this a net positive, as it locks in FSLR’s long-term advantage over competitors tied to foreign supply chains.

Vertical Integration: A Shield Against Tariffs and a Moat Against Chinese Competitors

First Solar is the only U.S.-based manufacturer of scale in the solar panel industry. This strategic isolation from Chinese imports offers two critical advantages:

1. Tariff Immunity: While peers like JinkoSolar (JKS) or Canadian Solar (CSIQ) face new U.S. tariffs on Chinese-made panels, FSLR’s domestic production avoids these headwinds entirely.
2. Supply Chain Control: Vertical integration ensures FSLR can manage costs and scale production without relying on volatile global supply chains. Its Series 6 and 7 modules boast industry-leading efficiency and durability, further differentiating its product.

Analyst Upgrades and Zacks’ Bullish Call: A Turning Point for FSLR

The investment community is rallying behind First Solar:

• Wolfe Research: Upgraded to Outperform with a $221 price target, citing FSLR’s “moat against Chinese competition” and the IRA’s structural tailwinds.
• Zacks Investment Research: Projects 15% sales growth in 2025 to $5.46 billion by 2026, with EPS soaring to $32.83 by 2026—a 49% jump from 2025 estimates. Despite a current Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), analysts note “buy ratings could be on the way” as earnings revisions trend upward.
• J.P. Morgan & GLJ: Both upgraded FSLR to Buy, with GLJ’s $172 price target underscoring the stock’s undervalued status (current PE of 13.28 vs. sector averages).

The market has already begun to recognize FSLR’s potential: On May 13, 2025, shares surged 22.35% on news of policy momentum and analyst upgrades.

The IRA’s Long Game: Why FSLR Is Built to Win

The IRA’s domestic content requirements and accelerated tax credits are designed to rebuild U.S. solar manufacturing—a goal First Solar has already achieved. Key structural advantages include:

• 32.2% EBIT Margins: Among the highest in the industry, thanks to scale and vertical integration.
• 32.2 GW Backlog: $19.8 billion in contracted sales, with most tied to U.S. projects eligible for tax credits.
• Enterprise Value of $16.18B: A fraction of its long-term potential as the IRA’s incentives mature.

Why Act Now? The Clock Is Ticking

The IRA’s deadlines are non-negotiable. For residential solar projects, the 30% ITC expires at the end of 2025, triggering a rush to install systems before costs spike. This creates immediate demand for FSLR’s panels—a demand it’s uniquely positioned to meet.

Meanwhile, commercial and industrial (C&I) projects will see tax credits phased down more gradually, giving FSLR years to capitalize. With $1.65–1.7B in projected tax credits for 2025, FSLR’s earnings trajectory is all but guaranteed.

Final Call: FSLR Is a Solar Play with a Built-in Hedge

First Solar isn’t just a beneficiary of the solar boom—it’s the most insulated, highest-margin, and policy-protected player in the game. With analyst upgrades, Zacks’ bullish revisions, and a stock price primed to rise further, now is the time to act before the IRA’s tailwinds fully lift FSLR’s valuation.

Don’t miss this chance to invest in the cornerstone of U.S. clean energy manufacturing. The IRA’s revival of solar incentives isn’t just a policy win—it’s a once-in-a-decade opportunity for First Solar shareholders.

Invest Now—Before the Boom Leaves You Behind.