Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) Market Overview

• SOLJPY rose from 34,331 to 36,308 during the 24-hour window, with a midday surge to 36,653.
• Momentum showed a strong bias to the upside, with RSI peaking above 70 near session highs.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with a high-low range of over 2,300.
• Volume increased sharply in the morning and evening sessions, aligning with price gains.
• A bullish engulfing pattern emerged in the late morning, suggesting continued upward bias.

The Solana/Yen (SOLJPY) pair opened at 34,331 on 2025-09-17 and closed at 36,308 on 2025-09-18, reaching a high of 36,653 and a low of 34,144 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 9,159.77 SOL, while notional turnover reached ¥315,454,883 (calculated using average price). The price action displayed a strong bullish trend, particularly from the afternoon onward, supported by increasing volume and extended range bars.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern formation suggests strong buyer participation, with a notable bullish engulfing candle emerging after a morning consolidation. A doji appeared briefly in the early morning session, signaling indecision before the trend resumed. Key resistance levels were observed at 36,400 and 36,650, while support was tested at 36,000 and 35,800, with the latter failing to hold. The price has shown a clear bias to the upside, with no major bearish reversal patterns emerging to challenge the current rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are in a bullish alignment, with the 20-period MA well above the 50-period MA. The pair is currently trading above both lines, reinforcing the bullish momentum. On a daily scale (simulated using the 24-hour range), the 50-period MA likely resides below the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a longer-term bullish trend is emerging after a potential consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has remained positive throughout the day, with the histogram expanding in the morning and evening sessions, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. RSI reached overbought territory in the late afternoon, peaking at 77, suggesting that the move may be exhausting. However, as long as RSI stays above 60 and MACD remains positive, the upward trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Price action has expanded beyond the upper Bollinger Band multiple times during the session, especially in the late afternoon and early evening, indicating high volatility. The band width has also widened, reflecting increased uncertainty and market participation. While such overextension could lead to a short-term pullback, the price continues to find support above the midline, maintaining the bullish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly between 17:00 and 19:00 ET, as well as between 03:00 and 05:00 ET, coinciding with strong price increases. Notional turnover mirrored volume closely, showing no divergence and supporting the strength of the rally. The alignment between volume and price suggests the move is driven by genuine demand rather than wash trading or manipulation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing low (34,144) and swing high (36,653), the 38.2% level (~35,380) and the 61.8% level (~35,900) were both tested. The price currently resides above both, indicating a potential target at the next Fibonacci extension level of ~36,900. The 50% retracement level (~35,398.5) appears to have been a minor support, further confirming the strength of the current trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bullish bias and confirmation from multiple indicators—including the bullish engulfing pattern, overextended RSI, and positive MACD—this setup could be suitable for a short-term breakout strategy. A potential entry point would be on a break of the high of the bullish engulfing candle (~35,104) with a stop just below the low of that candle. A target could be set at the next Fibonacci extension level (~36,900) or the next major psychological level at 37,000. The strategy would aim to capture continuation after a breakout of a key candle formation.