Solana/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-04

Summary
• Price opened at 168.02 and closed at 161.71, with a 24-hour high of 170.97 and low of 158.16.
• Volume dipped during the early morning dip but surged to 150,642.77 in the afternoon.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum during the downward leg after 17:00 ET.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction during consolidation between 19:30 and 21:00 ET.
• Fibonacci retracement levels aligned with key support levels at 165 and 160.

Solana/Tether (SOLUSDT) opened at 168.02 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 161.71 by 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 170.97, and the low reached 158.16. Total volume was 3,192,857.42 and notional turnover was $524,335.97 during the 24-hour period. The pair experienced a sharp sell-off in the late evening and early morning, followed by a partial rebound in the early afternoon.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern revealed a strong bearish bias, especially after the 19:30 ET time frame, where a long bearish candle closed below 165. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 22:30 and 23:00 ET, signaling a potential trend reversal. A key support level emerged at 160.8, coinciding with a prior low and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below the price after 20:30 ET, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, price held above the 50-day SMA but closed near the 100-day SMA, indicating a weakening bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative after 19:45 ET and remained bearish for the rest of the session. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 in the early morning, but the price failed to recover significantly, suggesting weak buying interest. This divergence raises the possibility of a further decline in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction between 19:30 and 21:00 ET, suggesting a period of low volatility and potential breakout. After 21:15 ET, price broke below the lower band and remained there for over two hours, indicating heightened bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively low during the initial consolidation phase but spiked significantly after 20:15 ET, with the largest single candle contributing 175,879.81 in volume. Notional turnover followed the same pattern, aligning with the price movement. No significant divergence was observed between volume and price, indicating strong conviction in the downward move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing high (170.97) and low (158.16), key levels were identified at 165 (38.2%) and 160.8 (61.8%). Price found support at both levels, with the 61.8% level holding particularly well during the morning session.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish signal from RSI and the confirmation from volume, a potential backtest could examine entering short positions when RSI(14) rises above 70 (overbought) and exits when price touches the 50-period SMA. This strategy could have captured the sharp decline in the evening session. A stop-loss at the 150-day SMA or the recent swing high of 170.97 could help manage risk. Daily close prices would be used for entries and exits, with no additional stops unless otherwise specified.

The market may continue to test the 160.8 support level in the next 24 hours, with a potential break below it suggesting further downside. However, a strong rebound from this level could initiate a short-term recovery. Investors should remain cautious due to the high volatility and lack of clear bullish catalysts.