Solana (SOLUSD) 24-Hour Market Overview

• Solana (SOLUSD) posted a 24-hour low of $204.21 amid extended bearish pressure, down from a high of $218.00.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed at 17:00 ET, indicating potential short-term exhaustion.
• RSI hit oversold territory near 30, suggesting near-term potential for a bounce.
• Volatility spiked 300% above the 15-min average during the 04:30–07:00 ET window.
• Turnover surged over $200M during the 04:30–07:00 ET session as price declined sharply.

Solana (SOLUSD) opened at $212.05 on 2025-08-28 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $218.00, and closed at $204.21 on 2025-08-29 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume was approximately 525.3 million SOL, with a notional turnover of around $112.2 million, reflecting intense trading activity and price volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed several key structures. A prominent bearish engulfing candle formed on the 15-minute chart at 17:00 ET, confirming a short-term top. This was followed by a sustained breakdown below key support levels at $212.8, $210.51, and $207.69. A minor bearish reversal pattern emerged at 04:30 ET after a brief rebound, but the downward trend continued. A potential short-term support level appears to be forming near $204.21, coinciding with a 15-minute swing low. A bullish hammer may form near this level if the price consolidates.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both trended downward, confirming the bearish momentum. The 50-period moving average crossed below the 20-period line in the early hours of 2025-08-29, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages showed a wide bearish divergence, with the price closing below both. The 100-period line currently sits at $213.50, acting as a key resistance zone for any near-term bounces.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram remained negative throughout the 24-hour period, with the signal line crossing below zero during the early part of the session, reinforcing the bearish trend. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30 at the end of the period, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. However, divergence between price and RSI during the 05:00–07:00 ET window suggests caution. While a recovery may occur in the near term, the overbought-to-oversold transition could only offer limited upside unless supported by strong volume.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 04:30–07:00 ET session as the price broke out of a consolidation range. The lower band moved downward to near $204.21, where the price found a temporary floor. The upper band currently sits at $217.06, and the price remains well below the middle band, indicating a strong bearish bias. The band width has widened by approximately 200% from earlier in the day, signaling increased volatility and potential for further downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover surged during the 04:30–07:00 ET window, with a peak in activity at 05:30 ET when price fell to $209.01 and 156.137 million SOL were traded. This high-volume bearish move confirmed the breakdown below $210.00. However, in the final 15 minutes of the period, volume dropped to near-zero levels, suggesting exhaustion. The divergence between price and volume during the 05:00–07:00 ET window indicates that the bearish move could face a test of sustainability. A failure to follow through with volume on the next leg down could signal a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from $218.00 to $204.21, the 38.2% level is at $213.13, and the 61.8% level is at $210.61. The price closed at $204.21, near the 0% level, suggesting a potential bounce from this area. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger move from $218.00 to $204.21 is at $210.61, which could act as a key psychological level in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup and recent behavior of Solana, a backtest hypothesis could be built around a short-term bounce trade off the $204.21 Fibonacci level. A buy setup could be triggered if the price closes above $210.61 on the 15-minute chart, confirming a short-term bullish reversal. The stop loss could be placed below $207.69, the prior key support. A target might be set at $213.13 for a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. This would align with the RSI entering oversold territory and potential bullish candlestick formations forming in the $204–$207 range.