Is Solana (SOL) Poised to Breakout on the 20–26 November Resistance Zone?

Solana (SOL) has long been a focal point for crypto investors, and the week of November 20–26, 2025, has intensified speculation about its next move. With the asset trading within a critical resistance zone of $130–$144.75, technical and on-chain indicators paint a nuanced picture of potential breakout scenarios. This analysis synthesizes recent price action, institutional activity, and network-level data to assess whether Solana is primed for a sustained upward move-or if bearish forces may yet prevail.

Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals Amid Consolidation

Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD
The RSI for Solana closed at 68.57 during the week, indicating bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD line remained above the signal line, reinforcing the idea of upward bias as per technical analysis. However, the 50-day moving average ($160.7) lagged below the 200-day moving average ($178.3), signaling a broader bearish trend. This divergence suggests that while short-term buyers are active, long-term skepticism persists.

Volume and Candlestick Patterns
Trading volume surged to $6.4 billion on November 20, as Solana tested the $144.65–$144.75 resistance zone. Despite this, candlestick patterns revealed hesitation. On November 20, the price opened at $136.77, spiked to $144.33, but closed at $133.52-a bearish reversal. Similar indecision occurred on November 26, with a high of $144.47 and a close of $143.01 as reported by market data. These patterns suggest that while buyers are attempting to push higher, sellers remain entrenched near key resistance levels.

Key Resistance and Support Levels
Immediate resistance levels identified during the week include $135, $140, and $142 according to technical analysis. A successful breakout above $144.75 could trigger a rally toward $250 and $293, but failure to hold above $130-a level tested on November 21-risks a retest of Fibonacci retracement levels at $75 and $50 as data indicates.

On-Chain Analysis: Institutional Confidence vs. Retail Capitulation

Network Activity and Institutional Demand
Solana's on-chain metrics highlight its growing utility. The network processed 543 million transactions in a single week, surpassing Ethereum in decentralized exchange (DEX) volume and weekly transactions. This surge was driven by upgrades like Firedancer and Alpenglow, which enhanced scalability and reduced latency as reported in industry news.

Institutional demand also remained robust. Solana spot ETFs recorded 19 consecutive days of inflows, exceeding $20 million daily. Fidelity's launch of a Solana-based fund and tokenization plans by a Nasdaq-listed company further underscored the asset's integration into traditional finance.

Holder Behavior and Market Sentiment
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator showed Solana entering a capitulation zone, with most holders underwater. Historically, such levels have coincided with market bottoms, as seen in 2022. However, long-term holders began exiting positions near $143, signaling waning confidence in a sustained reversal. This exodus could exacerbate volatility if the price fails to break through resistance.

Breakout Potential: A Calculated Bet

The technical and on-chain data present a mixed outlook. On one hand, strong institutional inflows, network upgrades, and a NUPL capitulation suggest a potential bottom. On the other, bearish candlestick patterns and a bearish moving average crossover indicate lingering risks.

For a bullish breakout to materialize, Solana must:
1. Hold above $130 to avoid a retest of lower Fibonacci levels.
2. Break through $144.75 with sustained volume to validate institutional participation.
3. Maintain positive NUPL trends to signal a shift in holder sentiment.

Conversely, a breakdown below $130 could reignite selling pressure, particularly as retail investors face liquidation risks.

Conclusion

Solana's performance during the 20–26 November resistance zone reflects a tug-of-war between institutional optimism and retail caution. While technical indicators and on-chain activity suggest a plausible breakout, the path forward remains contingent on key price levels and macroeconomic factors. Investors should closely monitor the $130 support and $144.75 resistance, as these will likely determine Solana's trajectory in the coming weeks.