Is Solana ($SOL) at a Pivotal Accumulation Threshold at $131?

The Solana (SOL) price action in late November 2025 has sparked intense debate among traders and analysts about whether the $131 level represents a critical accumulation threshold. With the asset retesting this key support zone amid a broader bearish trend, the question of technical reversal potential and on-chain demand validation becomes paramount. Let's dissect the evidence.

Technical Reversal Potential: A Fragile Bullish Bias

Solana's price has shown early signs of stabilization at $131, with technical indicators suggesting a potential short-term reversal. A bullish divergence on the RSI has emerged, where price makes lower lows while momentum creates higher lows, signaling weakening bearish pressure according to technical analysis. This divergence, combined with point-of-control volume activity during retests of the $131 level, indicates buyers stepping in to absorb selling pressure according to on-chain data.

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) metric also hints at mild accumulation, though not at a rate sufficient to confirm a robust reversal as reported by analysts. Meanwhile, the RSI at 33.66 places Solana in oversold territory, suggesting a temporary exhaustion of bearish momentum and the possibility of a short-term relief rally according to technical indicators. If buying pressure strengthens, the price could rebound toward the $150–$170 range. However, a breakdown below $141 could push Solana toward $95.70, underscoring the fragility of the bullish bias as detailed in market analysis.

On-Chain Demand Validation: Institutional Inflows vs. Declining Activity

While technical indicators paint a mixed picture, on-chain metrics offer critical insights into demand dynamics. Despite a 27.3% price drop from $187 to $136 in November 2025 according to market data, Solana investment products attracted $101.7 million in net inflows during the month, reflecting sustained institutional demand as reported by financial sources. This inflow occurred even as daily active addresses plummeted to a 12-month low of 3.3 million, down from over 9 million at the start of 2025 according to trading platform data.

The Network Value to Transaction (NVT) ratio-a key metric for assessing whether price aligns with transactional activity-suggests a widening gap between Solana's market valuation and its blockchain usage according to market analysis. While the exact NVT ratio at $131 is not explicitly stated in the sources, the surge in derivatives trading volume ($17.76 billion) and ETF inflows ($599 million) indicate heightened speculative activity as reported by financial data. This divergence raises questions about whether the price is overvalued relative to on-chain fundamentals.

Institutional Confidence and Structural Support

The VanEck Solana ETF and other institutional-grade products have added a layer of credibility to Solana's narrative. SOL Strategies, a staking provider, was selected for the VanEck ETF due to its ISO 27001 and SOC 2 certifications, signaling institutional trust in Solana's infrastructure as reported by industry sources. Additionally, Fidelity's filing for a Solana ETF in late November 2025 further underscores growing institutional interest as announced by market filings.

Structurally, the $131 level has acted as a double bottom and a point of control for buyers, with price hovering above it for several days according to technical analysis. This behavior, coupled with the development of a bullish divergence on the RSI, strengthens the case for a short-term reversal. However, the decline in active addresses and TVL (Total Value Locked) suggests a shift from speculative trading to more sustainable use cases like payments and RWA tokenization as detailed in on-chain reports.

Risks and Key Considerations

The primary risk lies in the fragile nature of the bullish bias. If Solana fails to hold above $141, further weakness toward $95.70 becomes likely according to market analysis. Additionally, the NVT ratio's divergence and declining user activity highlight a disconnect between capital inflows and actual network usage, which could delay a sustained reversal.

Gas fees on Solana also rose by 36% in November 2025, potentially discouraging smaller retail activity according to network data. While whale accumulation and ETF inflows provide a floor for the price, broader market sentiment remains bearish, with high interest rates and macroeconomic uncertainty dampening speculative demand according to market reports.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Threshold with Conditional Potential

Solana's price action at $131 suggests a pivotal accumulation threshold, but the outcome hinges on two critical factors: technical validation and on-chain demand sustainability. The RSI divergence and CMF accumulation point to a potential short-term rebound, while institutional inflows and ETF launches add bullish narrative support. However, the declining active addresses and NVT ratio divergence indicate that the market is not yet prepared for a sustained reversal.

For investors, the key is to monitor whether Solana can retest $140 without breaking below $131. A successful hold above this level could trigger a move toward $167–$170, but a breakdown would likely extend the bearish trend. In the meantime, the interplay between institutional confidence and on-chain fundamentals will remain the defining story for Solana in late 2025.