Solana (SOL) Forms Ascending Wedge Amid Mixed On-Chain Activity and ETF Inflows

Solana has experienced strong network growth with over 8 million new addresses in a 24-hour period. On-chain data indicates growing DeFi activity and stablecoin inflows, with $804.8 million in stablecoin inflows recorded.

Solana's blockchain has attracted significant attention in early 2026 due to its robust on-chain activity and institutional adoption. In the last 24 hours, the network saw the creation of over 8 million new addresses, driven by DeFi projects, memecoins, and high-throughput applications according to on-chain data. This surge in new users reflects growing demand for Solana's fast and cost-effective infrastructure.

Simultaneously, Solana's stablecoin inflows have surged to $804.8 million in a single day, outpacing competitors like Tron and Ethereum. This development highlights the platform's growing appeal for tokenization and financial applications. Institutional confidence has also increased, as evidenced by ETF inflows totaling $750 million in Q4 2025, despite a 26.5% price decline. The Bitwise BSOL fund alone recorded $476 million in inflows over 19 consecutive days.

However, technical analysis suggests a potential bearish trend. Solana's price has formed an ascending wedge near $144, a pattern often preceding a pullback. If the price breaks below $140, it could fall toward $132 and possibly $124 according to analyst projections. Long-term holders are showing weaker buying pressure, while selling pressure is increasing. A breakdown below $140 would confirm this bearish pattern, leading to a projected 9.5% decline to $129.

What Drives Institutional Confidence in Solana?

Institutional confidence in Solana is largely driven by its scalability and low transaction costs. The network processed 33 billion transactions in Q4 2025 and is expected to handle up to 100,000 TPS in test runs. These capabilities make it an attractive platform for high-throughput applications and institutional-grade DeFi solutions.

Furthermore, Solana's infrastructure supports a growing Real World Asset (RWA) sector exceeding $1 billion in market cap. The Alpenglow upgrade is expected to enhance the network's efficiency and resilience, aligning with increasing demand for fast and cost-effective blockchain infrastructure.

Institutional adoption is also evident in the ETF inflows. The Bitwise BSOL fund alone has seen substantial inflows, indicating growing institutional interest in Solana's tokenization capabilities and infrastructure. Morgan Stanley has filed for Bitcoin/Solana ETFs, signaling broader institutional confidence in the platform.

What Are the Key Risks for Solana's Price Trajectory?

The key risk for Solana's price is the potential breakdown of the ascending wedge pattern. If the price breaks below $140, it could trigger a correction to $129, reflecting weakening buying pressure from long-term holders. This correction could negate the positive momentum from recent user growth and ETF inflows.

Another risk is the increasing selling pressure from long-term investors, who are reducing their exposure to Solana. This trend could further exacerbate price volatility and create uncertainty for investors. Additionally, while the network's transaction volume and user base are growing, the projected price correction could undermine the bullish sentiment generated by these metrics.

Furthermore, regulatory developments such as the draft 'Clarity Act' could impact Solana's institutional access and long-term growth. While the legislation could improve institutional access, it also introduces regulatory uncertainty that may affect market sentiment.

In conclusion, Solana's network growth and institutional adoption are strong indicators of its potential. However, the current technical pattern and weakening buying pressure from long-term holders suggest a potential price correction. Investors should monitor key resistance and support levels closely, as well as the overall market sentiment and regulatory developments.