Solana (SOL): Critical Resistance at $145 and the Path to a 25% Upside

Solana (SOL) is at a pivotal moment in its price trajectory, with the $145 level emerging as a critical juncture for both technical and on-chain analysis. After months of consolidation within a $121–$145 range, the asset now faces a defining test: can buyers reclaim this resistance level and sustain momentum above it? The answer could determine whether Solana retests its 2025 highs or enters a new phase of volatility.

Technical Analysis: A Tipping Point

Technical indicators suggest a potential inflection point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are recovering from oversold territory, signaling a gradual tilt toward bullish momentum according to analysis. A confirmed daily close above $145 would align with the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $152 and $172, respectively, unlocking a 23–25% upside.

Candlestick patterns reinforce this narrative. The price has repeatedly tested the $145 ceiling, forming a "grinding" pattern that indicates growing demand pressure. A breakout above this level could trigger a rapid repricing, as liquidity clusters in the $145–$150 range-currently untouched-become activated according to market analysis. Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows mixed signals: while outflows persist, the Stochastic RSI hints at a potential corrective bounce according to technical analysis.

On-Chain Liquidity Clusters: The Hidden Engine

On-chain data reveals a concentrated liquidity pocket between $145 and $150, a zone that could become a focal point for buying activity if momentum improves. This cluster is reinforced by short-liquidation hotspots, meaning a sustained move above $145 could trigger a cascade of forced buying. Conversely, the $120–$130 support zone holds nearly $500 million in long positions, making it a critical floor for buyers.

The network's health also plays a role. Approximately 80% of Solana's circulating supply remains underwater, reducing liquidity from long-term holders and potentially stabilizing the market as they wait for a meaningful recovery. This dynamic, combined with rising Total Value Locked (TVL) and stablecoin liquidity, suggests a resilient ecosystem capable of supporting a breakout.

Institutional Flows and Market Sentiment

Institutional activity has been a key driver. Solana ETFs, including Bitwise's BSOL, have recorded four consecutive days of net inflows, signaling steady accumulation by larger players. Futures open interest has surged to $7.26 billion, with the long-to-short ratio flipping in favor of buyers. These metrics indicate aggressive positioning for a potential breakout, particularly as derivatives traders liquidate short positions according to market analysis.

However, the market remains fragile. Thin liquidity and elevated short positions amplify volatility risks, especially if Bitcoin's performance diverges from Solana's trajectory. Traders must monitor the $133 support level, as a breakdown could retest the $128–$121 range.

Historical Context and the 25% Upside Thesis

Historical performance around $145 provides further context. In late November 2025, Solana's price stabilized above a major support zone, with momentum indicators showing early signs of a rebound toward the $145–$150 region. A confirmed breakout would validate a broader bullish structure, with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at $145.25 acting as a psychological barrier.

If buyers succeed, the path to $164–$165 becomes increasingly viable, supported by short-covering and institutional inflows. This aligns with the 25% upside projection, as the 50-day and 200-day EMAs at $152 and $172 represent natural targets according to technical analysis.

Risks and Contingencies

The risks are clear. A failure to hold $145 could see Solana retest the $129 support zone, where nearly $500 million in long positions reside. A breakdown below $129 would likely trigger a cascade of forced selling, pushing the price toward $120–$121. Additionally, divergent behavior between spot and derivatives markets-such as ETF inflows versus declining network activity-could create conflicting signals.

Conclusion

Solana's $145 resistance level is more than a technical barrier; it's a battleground for market sentiment. With institutional flows, on-chain liquidity, and technical indicators all pointing to a potential breakout, the case for a 25% upside remains compelling. However, traders must remain vigilant: the path forward depends on sustaining volume above key thresholds and defending critical support levels. For those willing to navigate the volatility, Solana's next move could redefine its 2025 trajectory.