Solana (SOL): Is the Bullish RSI Divergence and ETF Inflow a Valid Reversal Signal Amid Pivotal Resistance Tests?

In late 2025, Solana (SOL) finds itself at a crossroads. The token has exhibited a bullish RSI divergence, with the Relative Strength Index forming higher lows while price action created lower lows-a classic technical signal of potential buying interest according to technical analysis. Simultaneously, U.S.-listed Solana ETFs have attracted $476 million in cumulative net inflows over 17 consecutive days, including a $48.5 million surge on November 20 alone as reported by CoinDesk. Yet, despite these seemingly positive catalysts, Solana's price remains trapped in a bearish consolidation pattern, struggling to reclaim the $130 resistance level and facing a critical test at the $110 support zone according to TradingView analysis.

This article dissects whether the bullish RSI divergence and ETF inflows signal a short-term reversal or merely reflect a temporary reprieve in a broader bearish narrative. By analyzing technical patterns, on-chain metrics, and institutional dynamics, we assess the validity of these signals in a market defined by diverging investor time horizons.

Technical Divergence: A Glimmer of Hope or False Dawn?

The RSI divergence observed in November 2025 is a textbook example of a potential reversal setup. As price action dipped to a new low, the RSI formed a higher low, suggesting that selling pressure was waning. This divergence aligns with a rising Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, which has trended upward since mid-2025, signaling institutional accumulation according to market analysis. However, the price remains constrained by a critical resistance level at $157.25-a former support zone that has now become a psychological ceiling according to market reports.

A breakout above $146 (a key psychological level) would be necessary to confirm a reversal. Analysts note that a clean close above this threshold could propel Solana toward $164–$165, a 23–25% rise. Yet, the market has spent weeks oscillating between $125 and $145, lacking the conviction to commit to a directional move. This indecision is exacerbated by weakening on-chain fundamentals, including a 63% drop in daily active addresses to a 12-month low of 3.3 million according to CoinDesk, signaling reduced retail participation and speculative fervor.

On-Chain Metrics: A Tale of Two Markets

The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for Solana has diverged sharply in November 2025, rising to levels that suggest overvaluation according to Bitget analysis. While the market value of Solana has grown, on-chain transaction activity has lagged, creating a disconnect between price and utility. This divergence is further amplified by institutional selling pressure, particularly from the FTX/Alameda bankruptcy estate, which released 193,000 SOL tokens ($30 million) in scheduled unlocks. These tokens often flowed to exchanges for creditor repayment, adding downward pressure to the price.

Volume data reinforces the bearish bias. On November 13, 2025, Solana's price collapsed from $153 to $145.43 amid a 13.23% surge in trading volume above weekly averages according to CoinDesk. This breakdown was marked by cascading stop-loss orders and 2.49 million trades-157% above the daily average according to market analysis. Such institutional selling suggests that the $142–$144 support zone is the next critical floor. A failure to hold here could extend the decline toward $135–$140 according to market reports.

ETF Inflows: Institutional Confidence vs. Short-Term Weakness

The ETF narrative is a paradox. While Solana's price languishes, institutional investors have poured $381 million into Solana-based ETFs in November 2025 according to market analysis. Products like Bitwise's BSOL attracted $369 million in assets by November 14 according to CoinDesk, with major institutions such as Rothschild Investment and PNC Financial Services disclosing new holdings according to CoinDesk reports. These inflows reflect long-term confidence in Solana's infrastructure utility, tokenization capabilities, and high-throughput architecture according to TradingView analysis.

However, ETF inflows have not translated into immediate price appreciation. Analysts attribute this to structural shifts in market dynamics, where trading activity has migrated to off-chain platforms like ETFs and futures markets according to 21Shares research. As a result, traditional on-chain metrics like NVT have become less reliable, requiring a dual lens of on-chain and off-chain data to assess true market sentiment.

The Contrarian Case: A Short-Term Reversal in a Bearish Context

The bullish RSI divergence and ETF inflows could signal a short-term reversal if Solana's price breaks above $146. A successful breakout would validate the CMF's upward trend and institutional accumulation, potentially triggering a 23–25% rally according to market analysis. However, this scenario hinges on overcoming three critical hurdles:

1. Macro Risk-Off Sentiment: Rising interest rates and broader market risk-off dynamics continue to pressure crypto assets according to OneKey analysis.
2. On-Chain Weakness: The NVT divergence and declining active addresses indicate a lack of organic demand according to Ambcrypto analysis.
3. Institutional Selling: FTX/Alameda token unlocks and ETF redemption cycles could reintroduce downward pressure according to CoinDesk reports.

For now, Solana remains in a tight range-bound pattern, with the $146 level acting as both a psychological and technical fulcrum. A breakout above this level would require a surge in buying volume and a reacceleration of ETF inflows. Conversely, a breakdown below $142–$144 would likely extend the decline toward $110, reigniting bearish sentiment.

Conclusion: A Market Waiting for a Catalyst

Solana's technical and on-chain landscape in late 2025 is a study in contrasts. The bullish RSI divergence and ETF inflows suggest a potential short-term reversal, but these signals must be weighed against a backdrop of institutional selling, NVT overvaluation, and macroeconomic headwinds. While the $146 resistance level offers a tantalizing target for bulls, the broader bearish context-defined by weak on-chain fundamentals and lingering macro risks-cannot be ignored.

Investors should monitor three key triggers in the coming weeks:
1. A sustained breakout above $146 with rising volume.
2. A stabilization in daily active addresses and NVT ratio.
3. A pause in FTX/Alameda token unlocks and ETF redemption cycles.

Until these conditions align, Solana remains a high-risk, high-reward proposition-a token teetering on the edge of a reversal or a deeper correction.