Solana's Short-Term Rebound Potential: RSI Momentum and Sentiment Signals

The cryptocurrency market's volatility has long made Solana (SOL) a focal point for traders and investors seeking both risk and reward. As of late 2025, Solana finds itself at a critical juncture, with technical indicators and market sentiment suggesting a potential short-term rebound. This analysis synthesizes recent data on RSI-driven momentum reversal and investor behavior to assess whether Solana's price trajectory could reverse in the near term.

Technical Indicators: RSI and MACD Signal Early Reversal

Solana's Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 34, a level that historically signals oversold conditions and a potential slowdown in downward momentum according to technical analysis. While some sources note a neutral RSI of 42.5, indicating neither overbought nor oversold territory as per technical readings, the divergence in readings underscores a market teetering between bearish exhaustion and early bullish accumulation.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned positive, with a value of +2.99, marking the first shift in trend strength after a prolonged decline according to price analysis. This development is critical: a MACD line above the signal line typically signals bullish momentum, while the histogram's positive divergence suggests a reset in buying pressure as per technical indicators. These technical cues align with historical patterns where oversold RSI levels and MACD crossovers have preceded short-term rebounds.

Market Sentiment: A Mixed Bag of Institutional Optimism and Retail Caution

While technicals hint at a reversal, market sentiment remains fragmented. On the bearish side, Solana is trading within a descending price channel, with recent action below the $146 resistance level. On-chain data reveals a dominance of selling pressure, with the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio skewed toward losses as holders offload positions to mitigate drawdowns according to financial reports. Additionally, the Fear and Greed Index for Solana has remained neutral at 42, reflecting cautious investor behavior without extreme fear or greed as per sentiment data.

However, optimism emerges from institutional activity. The approval of U.S. spot Solana ETFs, including Franklin Templeton's SOEZ, has driven a 21-day inflow streak totaling $613.22 million before a minor outflow on November 26 according to market analysis. Bitwise's BSOL ETF accounted for 85% of these inflows, signaling growing institutional confidence. Meanwhile, on-chain flows show a structural shift: $2.12 billion in USDC entered Binance, while $1.11 billion in SOL exited, forming a bullish liquidity divergence around the $120 support level. This suggests potential buy-side liquidity from whales or institutional actors, reinforcing the idea of a supply crunch beneath critical support.

Catalysts and Risks: The Road to $170 or Deeper Correction?

The coming months will hinge on two key catalysts. First, the anticipated launch of Solana Mobile's SKR token in January 2026 has already driven a 4% price boost in anticipation according to market forecasts. Second, the role of decentralized exchanges (DEXs) remains pivotal: Solana's $4.16 billion in 24-hour DEX volume highlights its growing utility in DeFi, which could attract further capital inflows according to market analysis.

Yet risks persist. A breakdown below $131.18 or $94.62 could trigger a deeper correction, while a breakout above $146 might propel Solana toward $170 or even $200 by year-end, contingent on broader market conditions and ETF inflows according to price trajectory analysis. The Money Flow Index (MFI) rising above the neutral line and a daily chart breakout from the descending channel add to the bullish case according to market signals, but these signals must be validated by sustained volume and price action.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet on Momentum and Institutional Adoption

Solana's technicals and sentiment indicators present a nuanced picture. The RSI's oversold reading and MACD's positive divergence suggest a potential short-term rebound, while institutional inflows and on-chain liquidity shifts hint at underlying strength. However, the bearish risks-particularly the fragile support levels and mixed retail sentiment-cannot be ignored. For investors, the key will be monitoring price action around $120 and $146, alongside ETF flows and the SKR token's impact. If the market confirms the bullish case, Solana could reclaim its position as a leading altcoin; if not, a deeper correction may test the mettle of even the most bullish holders.