Solana's Resilience Amid Volatility: Can Bulls Reclaim $135 Support Amid High DEX Activity?

Solana (SOL) has become a case study in the dissonance between technical price action and underlying market fundamentals. As the token trades near $126 in early 2026, having fallen 33% from its 2025 highs, the market is grappling with a paradox: robust decentralized exchange (DEX) volume, surging ETF inflows, and a thriving ecosystem coexist with a price that has struggled to reclaim key support levels. This article unpacks the interplay of market structure, investor sentiment, and fundamental developments to assess whether bulls can realistically reclaim the $135 threshold-and what that might mean for Solana's long-term trajectory.

Price Trends: A Bearish Breakdown or a Setup for Rebound?

Solana's price action in late 2025 painted a bearish picture. By December, the token had fallen below the critical $135 support level, consolidating below $130 and forming a bearish trend line with resistance at $136. The breakdown below the 100-hourly simple moving average (SMA) signaled a shift in momentum, with analysts warning of further declines toward $122 or even $120 if the $130 level failed to hold.

However, short-term technical indicators suggest a potential countertrend. A mid-December recovery to $131.09 and a mid-January 2026 projection of $145.94 hinge on the assumption that buyers will step in to defend key levels. Crucially, a close above $136 could trigger a rally toward $140 or higher, while a sustained break below $120 might accelerate the descent toward $112. This creates a high-stakes scenario for traders: the $135 zone is both a psychological battleground and a technical fulcrum.

DEX Volume vs. ETF Inflows: A Tale of Two Markets

The divergence between on-chain activity and price performance is striking. Solana's DEXs saw a record $1.6 trillion in trading volume in 2025, second only to Binance's $7.2 trillion. This surge outpaced centralized exchanges like Bybit and Coinbase, underscoring Solana's growing role as a hub for decentralized liquidity. Yet, despite this robust volume, the price of SOL stagnated near $126, raising questions about the disconnect between trading activity and valuation.

Meanwhile, Solana ETFs have defied the bearish narrative. Despite a 5.24% drop in late November 2025, which sent SOL to $145.43, spot ETFs continued to attract capital, with a seven-day inflow streak totaling $674 million. This institutional demand suggests that long-term investors remain confident in Solana's fundamentals, even as retail traders on DEXs grapple with volatility. The coexistence of these two dynamics-high DEX volume and strong ETF inflows-points to a market split between speculative trading and strategic accumulation.

Fundamentals: The Case for a Bullish Rebound

Solana's ecosystem has continued to evolve at a rapid pace, offering a compelling case for a bullish rebound. Network upgrades like Alpenglow, which promises to reduce block finality times to 100–150 milliseconds, and Firedancer, which boosted transaction speeds to 870.6 TPS, have solidified Solana's reputation as a high-performance blockchain. These technical advancements, combined with a TVL of $10.2 billion and 17,708 active developers, highlight the platform's resilience.

Strategic partnerships with financial institutions and tech giants have further expanded Solana's real-world utility, while its dominance in DeFi and gaming has attracted institutional capital. Analysts argue that these fundamentals-coupled with macroeconomic tailwinds like Fed rate cuts justify a price target of $248 by the end of 2025 and $500 by 2030. Even in early 2026, Solana's TVL and weekly transaction counts (415.57 million) remain strong, suggesting that the ecosystem's health is not as fragile as the price chart implies.

Strategic Entry Points and Market Structure

For investors, the key lies in aligning technical triggers with fundamental strength. A breakout above $147 in early 2026-confirmed by sustained volume and a close above the 100-SMA-could signal a shift in momentum, with targets at $150–$165 and potentially $300–$500 by year-end. Conversely, a failure to hold $130 would likely extend the downtrend toward $120, testing the resolve of long-term holders.

The $135 zone, therefore, represents a critical inflection point. If bulls can defend this level, the combination of ETF inflows, DEX activity, and strong fundamentals could catalyze a rebound. However, a breakdown below $130 would force a reassessment of the market's structure, with institutional buyers likely stepping in to accumulate at discounted prices.

Conclusion: A Market at a Crossroads

Solana's current trajectory reflects the tension between short-term volatility and long-term potential. While the price has struggled to reclaim $135, the underlying ecosystem's growth, coupled with divergent investor sentiment between DEXs and ETFs, suggests that the bearish narrative is incomplete. For strategic investors, the challenge is to balance technical caution with confidence in Solana's fundamentals. If the network can navigate this period of consolidation, the $135 support level may not be a death knell for bulls-but a springboard for a more resilient bull market.