Is Solana Ready to Break Above $145 and Unlock $170+?

The Solana (SOL) price narrative in late 2025 has been defined by a tug-of-war between bullish on-chain fundamentals and bearish technical constraints. With the $145–$147 resistance zone acting as a psychological and structural barrier, investors are scrutinizing whether the network's robust ecosystem growth can translate into a sustained price breakout. This analysis evaluates critical technical and on-chain signals to determine if Solana is poised to break above $145 and target $170+.

Technical Analysis: A Fragile Equilibrium

Solana's price action in December 2025 has been characterized by consolidation near $145, with mixed signals emerging from key technical indicators. A daily close above $150 is widely regarded as a prerequisite for confirming a broader recovery phase, yet the asset has struggled to breach the $145–$147 resistance zone, indicating persistent bearish pressure.

Derivatives data, however, suggests a shift in sentiment. Open interest and the long-to-short ratio have flipped in favor of bulls, signaling growing conviction among traders. If Solana manages to break above $145, the next critical targets would be the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $152 and the 200-day EMA at $172, according to analysis. Conversely, a breakdown below $120-a level already tested with a 5% drop to $145- could trigger further selling pressure as stop-loss orders are activated.

On-Chain Metrics: Strength Beneath the Surface

While technical indicators remain inconclusive, Solana's on-chain fundamentals tell a different story. Despite a price stall below $147, the network's decentralized exchanges (DEXs) processed a staggering $1.6 trillion in trading volume in 2025, underscoring its role as a high-throughput blockchain. This throughput is further validated by a record 3.2 million unique active wallets and 725 million new wallet additions, reflecting sustained user adoption.

However, the Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio-a metric comparing market cap to daily transaction volume- has reached a seven-month high, suggesting that valuation growth is outpacing transaction demand. This divergence raises caution, as elevated NVT ratios historically correlate with overvaluation and potential price corrections.

Institutional Flows and Ecosystem Resilience

Institutional interest in Solana has surged, with four consecutive days of net inflows into Solana-focused ETFs, including a $16.54 million inflow on a single day. This capital influx, coupled with rising derivatives positioning, indicates growing institutional confidence in the asset's long-term potential.

Meanwhile, Solana's ecosystem continues to outperform expectations. Total Value Locked hit a record $8.6–$8.98 billion, and network revenue reached $1.4 billion in 2025-a 48-fold increase over two years. These metrics highlight the network's ability to generate value independently of short-term price volatility.

The Path to $170+: A Conditional Outlook

For Solana to unlock the $170+ price level, it must first overcome the $145–$147 resistance zone with a clean breakout. A sustained close above this level would validate the 50-day and 200-day EMA targets, potentially attracting algorithmic and institutional buyers. However, the elevated NVT ratio and macroeconomic headwinds-such as broader market risk-off sentiment- pose near-term risks.

The critical test will be whether Solana can maintain support near $120 without triggering a cascade of stop-loss orders. If it succeeds, the asset may consolidate in a range-bound pattern until macro conditions improve. A failure to break above $145, on the other hand, could force traders to reassess the $120 level as a new ceiling.

Conclusion

Solana's technical and on-chain profiles present a nuanced picture. While the network's fundamentals-robust DEX volume, wallet growth, and institutional inflows-suggest underlying strength, the $145 resistance remains a psychological hurdle that must be cleared for a $170+ move. Investors should monitor the NVT ratio and institutional flows as key indicators of whether the breakout is driven by genuine demand or speculative fervor. In the short term, patience and risk management will be paramount, as the path to $170+ hinges on both technical execution and macroeconomic alignment.